

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 79.21%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 6.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.72%) and 1-0 (10.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.64%), while for a SC Farense win it was 0-1 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | SC Farense |
| 79.21% ( | 14% ( | 6.79% ( |
| Both teams to score 41.95% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.84% ( | 39.16% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.51% ( | 61.49% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.09% ( | 7.91% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 72.01% ( | 27.98% ( |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.55% ( | 54.45% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 12.45% ( | 87.55% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | SC Farense |
| 2-0 @ 13.86% 3-0 @ 11.72% ( 1-0 @ 10.92% ( 2-1 @ 8.43% ( 4-0 @ 7.43% ( 3-1 @ 7.13% ( 4-1 @ 4.52% ( 5-0 @ 3.77% ( 5-1 @ 2.29% ( 3-2 @ 2.17% ( 6-0 @ 1.59% ( 4-2 @ 1.37% ( 6-1 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 3.02% Total : 79.2% | 1-1 @ 6.64% ( 0-0 @ 4.31% ( 2-2 @ 2.56% ( Other @ 0.48% Total : 14% | 0-1 @ 2.62% ( 1-2 @ 2.02% ( Other @ 2.16% Total : 6.79% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 25 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 67 | 22 | 45 | 59 |
| 2 | Benfica | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 18 | 38 | 56 |
| 3 | Braga | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 53 |
| 4 | Porto | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 20 | 29 | 50 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 43 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 34 | 27 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 36 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 35 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 34 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 29 |
| 11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 28 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 28 |
| 13 | Nacional | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 26 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 23 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 23 |
| 16 | AVS | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 17 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 42 | -26 | 15 |
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