

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 48.6%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 26.84% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.48%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 26.84% ( | 24.56% ( | 48.6% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.92% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.56% ( | 47.44% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.34% ( | 69.65% ( |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.28% ( | 31.72% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.86% ( | 68.13% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.43% ( | 19.57% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.5% ( | 51.49% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 7.13% ( 2-1 @ 6.68% ( 2-0 @ 4.09% ( 3-1 @ 2.56% ( 3-2 @ 2.08% ( 3-0 @ 1.57% ( Other @ 2.74% Total : 26.84% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( 0-0 @ 6.21% ( 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 3-3 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.55% | 0-1 @ 10.12% ( 1-2 @ 9.48% ( 0-2 @ 8.26% ( 1-3 @ 5.16% ( 0-3 @ 4.49% ( 2-3 @ 2.96% ( 1-4 @ 2.1% ( 0-4 @ 1.83% ( 2-4 @ 1.21% ( Other @ 2.99% Total : 48.6% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 88 | 27 | 61 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 84 | 28 | 56 | 80 |
| 3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 30 | 35 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 66 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 57 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 47 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 53 | -5 | 46 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 45 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 38 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 38 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 27 |
| 17 | AVS | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 60 | -35 | 27 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 59 | -35 | 24 |
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