

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 78.59%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 7.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.24%) and 1-0 (10.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.71%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
| 78.59% ( | 14.11% ( | 7.3% ( |
| Both teams to score 44.35% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.43% | 37.57% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.2% | 59.8% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.31% ( | 7.69% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 72.58% ( | 27.42% ( |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.05% ( | 51.95% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.02% ( | 85.98% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
| 2-0 @ 13.14% ( 3-0 @ 11.24% ( 1-0 @ 10.24% 2-1 @ 8.61% ( 3-1 @ 7.36% ( 4-0 @ 7.21% ( 4-1 @ 4.72% 5-0 @ 3.7% ( 5-1 @ 2.42% 3-2 @ 2.41% ( 6-0 @ 1.58% ( 4-2 @ 1.55% ( 6-1 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 3.37% Total : 78.58% | 1-1 @ 6.71% ( 0-0 @ 4% ( 2-2 @ 2.82% ( Other @ 0.59% Total : 14.11% | 0-1 @ 2.62% ( 1-2 @ 2.2% ( Other @ 2.49% Total : 7.3% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 83 | 25 | 58 | 75 |
| 2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 80 | 25 | 55 | 75 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 64 |
| 4 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 57 | 28 | 29 | 62 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 51 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 50 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 40 | 34 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 36 |
| 11 | Nacional | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 33 |
| 13 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 32 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 29 |
| 16 | AVS | 31 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 23 | 55 | -32 | 24 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 20 | 42 | -22 | 21 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 52 | -32 | 21 |
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