

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 80.71%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 6.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.74%), while for a Boavista win it was 1-2 (2.16%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
| 80.71% ( | 12.36% ( | 6.93% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.93% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.28% ( | 29.72% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.14% ( | 50.85% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.37% ( | 5.62% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 78.19% ( | 21.8% ( |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.91% ( | 47.09% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.44% ( | 82.55% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
| 2-0 @ 10.96% ( 3-0 @ 10.52% ( 2-1 @ 8.26% ( 3-1 @ 7.93% ( 1-0 @ 7.62% ( 4-0 @ 7.57% ( 4-1 @ 5.7% ( 5-0 @ 4.36% ( 5-1 @ 3.28% ( 3-2 @ 2.98% ( 4-2 @ 2.15% ( 6-0 @ 2.09% ( 6-1 @ 1.58% ( 5-2 @ 1.24% ( Other @ 4.46% Total : 80.7% | 1-1 @ 5.74% ( 2-2 @ 3.11% ( 0-0 @ 2.65% ( Other @ 0.86% Total : 12.36% | 1-2 @ 2.16% ( 0-1 @ 1.99% ( Other @ 2.78% Total : 6.93% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 83 | 25 | 58 | 75 |
| 2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 80 | 25 | 55 | 75 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 64 |
| 4 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 57 | 28 | 29 | 62 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 51 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 50 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 40 | 34 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 36 |
| 11 | Nacional | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 33 |
| 13 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 32 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 29 |
| 16 | AVS | 31 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 23 | 55 | -32 | 24 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 20 | 42 | -22 | 21 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 52 | -32 | 21 |
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