

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 62.71%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 16.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.36%) and 1-2 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.11%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 1-0 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 16.03% ( | 21.27% ( | 62.71% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.71% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.41% ( | 46.59% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.14% ( | 68.86% ( |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.97% ( | 42.03% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.54% ( | 78.46% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.75% ( | 14.25% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.98% ( | 42.02% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Rio Ave | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 5.19% ( 2-1 @ 4.38% ( 2-0 @ 2.25% ( 3-1 @ 1.27% ( 3-2 @ 1.23% ( Other @ 1.7% Total : 16.03% | 1-1 @ 10.11% ( 0-0 @ 5.99% ( 2-2 @ 4.27% ( Other @ 0.89% Total : 21.26% | 0-1 @ 11.67% ( 0-2 @ 11.36% ( 1-2 @ 9.85% ( 0-3 @ 7.38% ( 1-3 @ 6.4% ( 0-4 @ 3.6% ( 1-4 @ 3.12% ( 2-3 @ 2.77% ( 0-5 @ 1.4% ( 2-4 @ 1.35% ( 1-5 @ 1.21% ( Other @ 2.58% Total : 62.7% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 78 | 25 | 53 | 72 |
| 2 | Benfica | 30 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 74 | 25 | 49 | 72 |
| 3 | Braga | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 51 | 25 | 26 | 63 |
| 4 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 62 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 48 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 43 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 35 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 33 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 33 |
| 13 | Nacional | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 32 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 26 |
| 16 | AVS | 30 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 23 | 49 | -26 | 24 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 21 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 21 |
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