Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 66.89%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 15.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.96%) and 3-1 (7.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.35%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-2 (4.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Manchester City in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Manchester City.