Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 66.98%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Crystal Palace had a probability of 14.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 1-0 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.74%), while for a Crystal Palace win it was 1-2 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.