Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 52.85%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 24.52% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.1%). The likeliest Southampton win was 2-1 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.