Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 33

Apr 19, 2025 at 5.30pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa
4 - 1
Newcastle

Watkins (1'), Maatsen (64'), Burn (73' og.), Onana (75')
Ramsey (88')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Schar (18')
Schar (13'), Joelinton (41'), Guimaraes (63')

Reaction

Ollie Watkins of Aston Villa celebrates on April 12, 2025

Ollie Watkins lays down Aston Villa selection gauntlet to Unai Emery, admits frustration in Marcus Rashford battle

Aston Villa forward Ollie Watkins says that head coach Unai Emery 'has a selection headache coming' after his match-winning performance in 4-1 win over Newcastle United.

Apr 19, 19:25

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Aston Villa 3-2 PSG
Tuesday, April 15 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Newcastle United

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Newcastle 5-0 Crystal Palace
Wednesday, April 16 at 7.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 39.42%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 37.35% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.41%) and 2-0 (5.28%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-2 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Newcastle United
39.42% ( -5.87)	23.23% ( 0.19)	37.35% ( 5.68)

Both teams to score 64.44% (

0.94)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.98% (

0.57)

37.01% (

-0.57)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.8% (

0.61)

59.2% (

-0.61)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.75% (

-2.22)

19.24% (

2.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.04% (

-3.79)

50.96% (

3.78)

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.79% (

3.26)

20.21% (

-3.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.48% (

4.97)

52.52% (

-4.97)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 39.42%

Newcastle United 37.35%

Draw 23.22%

Aston Villa	Draw	Newcastle United
2-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.63) 1-0 @ 6.41% ( -0.67) 2-0 @ 5.28% ( -0.98) 3-1 @ 4.64% ( -0.72) 3-2 @ 3.71% ( -0.17) 3-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.79) 4-1 @ 1.91% ( -0.46) 4-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.19) 4-0 @ 1.2% ( -0.44) Other @ 3.41% Total : 39.42%	1-1 @ 10.24% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.75% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 3.89% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.36% Total : 23.22%	1-2 @ 8.19% ( 0.76) 0-1 @ 6.22% ( 0.43) 0-2 @ 4.97% ( 0.77) 1-3 @ 4.37% ( 0.78) 2-3 @ 3.6% ( 0.42) 0-3 @ 2.65% ( 0.62) 1-4 @ 1.75% ( 0.45) 2-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.29) 0-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.33) Other @ 3.1% Total : 37.35%