Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 41.08%. A win for Manchester United had a probability of 36.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.99%) and 2-0 (5.22%). The likeliest Manchester United win was 1-2 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.