Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 55.26%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 23.03% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.13%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 1-2 (5.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
| 55.26% ( | 21.71% ( | 23.03% ( |
| Both teams to score 60.56% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.88% ( | 38.11% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.61% ( | 60.38% ( |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.22% ( | 13.77% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.92% ( | 41.08% ( |
| Nottingham Forest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.23% ( | 29.77% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.16% ( | 65.84% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 1-0 @ 8.13% ( 2-0 @ 8.06% ( 3-1 @ 6.45% ( 3-0 @ 5.32% ( 3-2 @ 3.91% ( 4-1 @ 3.2% ( 4-0 @ 2.64% ( 4-2 @ 1.94% ( 5-1 @ 1.27% ( 5-0 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 3.54% Total : 55.26% | 1-1 @ 9.85% ( 2-2 @ 5.92% ( 0-0 @ 4.1% ( 3-3 @ 1.58% ( Other @ 0.26% Total : 21.71% | 1-2 @ 5.97% ( 0-1 @ 4.97% ( 0-2 @ 3.01% ( 1-3 @ 2.41% ( 2-3 @ 2.39% ( 0-3 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 3.07% Total : 23.03% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Liverpool | 38 | 25 | 9 | 4 | 86 | 41 | 45 | 84 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 20 | 14 | 4 | 69 | 34 | 35 | 74 |
| 3 | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 72 | 44 | 28 | 71 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 38 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 69 |
| 5 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 66 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 58 | 51 | 7 | 66 |
| 7 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 65 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 66 | 59 | 7 | 61 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 56 |
| 10 | Brentford | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 66 | 57 | 9 | 56 |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 9 | 14 | 54 | 54 | 0 | 54 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 51 | 51 | 0 | 53 |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 48 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 43 |
| 15 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 42 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 12 | 6 | 20 | 54 | 69 | -15 | 42 |
| 17 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 11 | 5 | 22 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 38 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 33 | 80 | -47 | 25 |
| R | Ipswich TownIpswich | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 36 | 82 | -46 | 22 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 26 | 86 | -60 | 12 |
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