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FA Cup

Birmingham logo
FA Cup | Fourth Round
Feb 8, 2025 at 5.45pm UK
St. Andrew's Stadium
Newcastle logo

Birmingham
2 - 3
Newcastle

Laird (1'), Iwata (40')
Anderson (45+3'), Stansfield (66'), Klarer (71'), Thor Willumsson (74')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Willock (22', 82'), Wilson (26')
Burn (14'), Osula (45+3'), Willock (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Birmingham City and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Birmingham City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Stevenage 0-1 Birmingham
Tuesday, February 4 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

Newcastle United

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Newcastle 2-0 Arsenal
Wednesday, February 5 at 8pm in EFL Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 49.28%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 26.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 0-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
Birmingham CityDrawNewcastle United
49.28% (0.27 0.27)24.22% (-0.077000000000002 -0.08)26.49% (-0.201 -0.2)
Both teams to score 55.7% (0.065999999999995 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.73% (0.17 0.17)46.26% (-0.177 -0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.44% (0.161 0.16)68.55% (-0.16799999999999 -0.17)
Birmingham City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.16% (0.17100000000001 0.17)18.84% (-0.178 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.71% (0.291 0.29)50.28% (-0.29900000000001 -0.3)
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.63% (-0.067999999999998 -0.07)31.37% (0.061 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.26% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)67.74% (0.069000000000003 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Birmingham City 49.28%
    Newcastle United 26.5%
    Draw 24.22%
Birmingham CityDrawNewcastle United
1-0 @ 9.86% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.55% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 8.23% (0.032 0.03)
3-1 @ 5.31% (0.041 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.58% (0.043 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.08% (0.019 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.22% (0.03 0.03)
4-0 @ 1.91% (0.029 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.29% (0.015 0.01)
Other @ 3.25%
Total : 49.28%
1-1 @ 11.43% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 5.91% (-0.044 -0.04)
2-2 @ 5.53% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-3 @ 1.19% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.22%
0-1 @ 6.85% (-0.063 -0.06)
1-2 @ 6.63% (-0.035 -0.04)
0-2 @ 3.97% (-0.044 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.56% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.14% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 1.54% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 26.5%

How you voted: Birmingham vs Newcastle

Birmingham City
30.2%
Draw
10.3%
Newcastle United
59.5%
116
Head to Head
Mar 18, 2017 3pm
Birmingham
0-0
Newcastle
Robinson (56')
Jan 18, 2017 7.45pm
Third Round
Newcastle
3-1
Birmingham
Ritchie (9' pen., 92'), Gouffran (35')
Tiote (69')
Cotterill (71')
Legzdins (9'), Shotton (34'), Brown (87')
> Match Report
Jan 7, 2017 3pm
Third Round
Birmingham
1-1
Newcastle
Jutkiewicz (42')
Murphy (5')
Hayden (68')
Dec 10, 2016 3pm
Newcastle
4-0
Birmingham
Gayle (18', 24', 77'), Gouffran (47')
Ritchie (59'), Hayden (75')

Tesche (32')
May 7, 2011 3pm
Newcastle
2-1
Birmingham
Taylor (43'), Ameobi (36' pen.)
Tiote (90')
Bowyer (45')
Bowyer (73'), Jiranek (76'), Larsson (90'), Jerome (90')
Ridgewell (36')
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CLiverpool38259486414584
2Arsenal382014469343574
3Manchester CityMan City38218972442871
4Chelsea38209964432169
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle382061268472166
6Aston Villa38199105851766
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest381981158461265
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton38161396659761
9Bournemouth3815111258461256
10Brentford38168146657956
11Fulham38159145454054
12Crystal Palace381314115151053
13Everton381115124244-248
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham381110174662-1643
15Manchester UnitedMan Utd38119184454-1042
16Wolverhampton WanderersWolves38126205469-1542
17Tottenham HotspurSpurs38115226465-138
RLeicester CityLeicester3867253380-4725
RIpswich TownIpswich38410243682-4622
RSouthampton3826302686-6012
> Premier League Full Table


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