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FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 11, 2025 at 12pm UK
St. Andrew's Stadium
Lincoln City

Birmingham
2 - 1
Lincoln

Yokoyama (1'), Dykes (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Makama (90' pen.)
Montsma (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Birmingham City and Lincoln City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wigan 0-3 Birmingham
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 0-0 Stevenage
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in League One

We said: Birmingham City 2-0 Lincoln City

Likely to rotate following a hectic festive schedule, a disjointed Birmingham side might struggle to find their rhythm in the FA Cup this weekend. However, Blues should have enough quality on the pitch and in reserve for success, especially considering Lincoln's recent struggles in front of goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 65.75%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Lincoln City had a probability of 13.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.6%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.77%), while for a Lincoln City win it was 0-1 (4.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.

Result
Birmingham CityDrawLincoln City
65.75% (0.033000000000001 0.03) 20.61% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01) 13.63% (-0.025 -0.03)
Both teams to score 45.97% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.49% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)48.51% (0.012 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.36% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)70.63% (0.010000000000005 0.01)
Birmingham City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.07% (0.0049999999999955 0)13.93% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.61% (0.010000000000005 0.01)41.39% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.41% (-0.047000000000004 -0.05)46.59% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.83% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)82.17% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Birmingham City 65.75%
    Lincoln City 13.63%
    Draw 20.61%
Birmingham CityDrawLincoln City
1-0 @ 12.79% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 12.6% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.63% (-0.0029999999999983 -0)
3-0 @ 8.28% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.33% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 4.08% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-1 @ 3.12% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 2.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-0 @ 1.61% (0.0029999999999999 0)
5-1 @ 1.23%
4-2 @ 1.19% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 65.75%
1-1 @ 9.77% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
0-0 @ 6.49% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-2 @ 3.68% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Other @ 0.68%
Total : 20.61%
0-1 @ 4.96% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
1-2 @ 3.73% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.89% (-0.004 -0)
1-3 @ 0.95% (-0.003 -0)
2-3 @ 0.94% (-0.0019999999999999 -0)
Other @ 1.16%
Total : 13.63%

How you voted: Birmingham vs Lincoln

Birmingham City
90.7%
Lincoln City
9.3%
54
Head to Head
Oct 19, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 12
Lincoln
1-3
Birmingham
Anderson (14', 79'), Thor Willumsson (52')
Klarer (47'), Cochrane (50'), Iwata (85')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CLiverpool36258383374683
2Arsenal371914467333471
3Newcastle UnitedNewcastle372061168462266
4Chelsea37199963432066
5Aston Villa3719995849966
6Manchester CityMan City36198967432465
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest371981058451365
8Brentford37167146556955
9Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton36141395956355
10Fulham37159135452254
11Bournemouth3614111155431253
12Crystal Palace361213114648-249
13Everton371015124144-345
14Wolverhampton WanderersWolves36125195164-1341
15West Ham UnitedWest Ham371010174361-1840
16Manchester UnitedMan Utd37109184254-1239
17Tottenham HotspurSpurs37115216361238
RLeicester CityLeicester3767243378-4525
RIpswich TownIpswich37410233579-4422
RSouthampton3726292584-5912


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