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FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 11, 2025 at 12pm UK
St. Andrew's Stadium
Lincoln City

Birmingham
2 - 1
Lincoln

Yokoyama (1'), Dykes (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Makama (90' pen.)
Montsma (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Birmingham City and Lincoln City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Birmingham City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Wigan 0-3 Birmingham
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in League One

Lincoln City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Lincoln 0-0 Stevenage
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 65.75%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Lincoln City had a probability of 13.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.6%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.77%), while for a Lincoln City win it was 0-1 (4.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.

Result
Birmingham CityDrawLincoln City
65.75% (0.033000000000001 0.03)20.61% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)13.63% (-0.025 -0.03)
Both teams to score 45.97% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.49% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)48.51% (0.012 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.36% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)70.63% (0.010000000000005 0.01)
Birmingham City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.07% (0.0049999999999955 0)13.93% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.61% (0.010000000000005 0.01)41.39% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.41% (-0.047000000000004 -0.05)46.59% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.83% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)82.17% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Birmingham City 65.75%
    Lincoln City 13.63%
    Draw 20.61%
Birmingham CityDrawLincoln City
1-0 @ 12.79% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 12.6% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.63% (-0.0029999999999983 -0)
3-0 @ 8.28% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.33% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 4.08% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-1 @ 3.12% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 2.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-0 @ 1.61% (0.0029999999999999 0)
5-1 @ 1.23%
4-2 @ 1.19% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 65.75%
1-1 @ 9.77% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
0-0 @ 6.49% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-2 @ 3.68% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Other @ 0.68%
Total : 20.61%
0-1 @ 4.96% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
1-2 @ 3.73% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.89% (-0.004 -0)
1-3 @ 0.95% (-0.003 -0)
2-3 @ 0.94% (-0.0019999999999999 -0)
Other @ 1.16%
Total : 13.63%

How you voted: Birmingham vs Lincoln

Birmingham City
90.7%
Lincoln City
9.3%
54
Head to Head
Oct 19, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 12
Lincoln
1-3
Birmingham
Cadamarteri (1')
Anderson (14', 79'), Thor Willumsson (52')
Klarer (47'), Cochrane (50'), Iwata (85')
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