Mozambique and Mauritius will meet at the Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium on Saturday, with Les Dodos hoping to pull off a huge win in the 2025 COSAFA Cup.
Os Mambas edged hosts South Africa 1-0 in their opening fixture, while Les Dodos were forced to settle for a goalless draw against Zimbabwe.
Match preview
Mozambique delivered a commanding performance against South Africa, showing impressive balance in both attack and defence, registering four shots on target while limiting the hosts to just one.
The Mambas eventually found a breakthrough in the 73rd minute through Antonio Sumban, and it proved to be the match winner, handing them a great start to the competition.
Head coach Chiquinho Conde will have been encouraged not only by the result, but also by the fluid attacking play and defensive organisation, a display that provides a solid platform as they aim to top the group, something they achieved in the previous edition of the competition before going on to finish as second runners-up.
With their most challenging group fixture now behind them, Mozambique will be confident of building momentum, particularly given their strong record against Mauritius, winning four of the last five meetings between the sides.
Mauritius, meanwhile, returned to the competition after opting out in 2024, and they put in a disciplined defensive display against Zimbabwe but failed to capitalise on their opportunities, despite limiting their opponents to zero shots on target.
Facing a side of Mozambique’s calibre, who also defeated them 1-0 in their only previous COSAFA Cup encounter back in 2023, may leave them regretting those missed chances even more, though head coach Guillaume Moullec will be hoping for another resolute showing at the back.
Les Dodos have not reached the knockout stages of this competition in over 20 years, and their recent form does little to suggest a turnaround, having remained winless in their last six matches across all competitions, drawing three and failing to score in four of those.
With their easiest group fixture already behind them, any points gained from their final two matches would be a welcome bonus.
Mozambique COSAFA Cup form:
Mozambique form (all competitions):
Mauritius COSAFA Cup form:
Mauritius form (all competitions):
Team News
Mozambique boss Conde handed starts to Portugal-based duo Guebuza and captain Keyns Abdala in the win over South Africa, though fellow overseas-based player Edson Mucuana was unused but could come into contention.
Creative midfielder Alcidio Raice started behind the striker but was replaced just after the half-hour mark by Fernando Domingos, who could be handed a starting role in this clash.
For Mauritius, West Ham United Academy talent Gabriel Caliste was named in the starting XI against Zimbabwe and is expected to keep his place.
However, defender Jordan Francois is a doubt after picking up an injury late on in the opener and may miss out on Saturday.
Mozambique possible starting lineup:
Muendane; Maziuana, Cumbane, Pedro, Cherene; Abdala, Machava; Sumbane, Domingos, Francisco; Alfandega
Mauritius possible starting lineup:
Jean-Louis; Antoine, Collard, Rose, Mootoo; Langue; Aristide, Caliste, Botlar; Robillard, Legrand
We say: Mozambique 2-1 Mauritius
Mozambique’s confident performance against South Africa suggests they are ready to dominate the group and will have too much for Mauritius who lack a threat in attack and have struggled against the Mambas in this fixture.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mozambique win with a probability of 69.81%. A draw has a probability of 19.8% and a win for Mauritius has a probability of 10.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win is 1-0 with a probability of 15.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (14.83%) and 3-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.07%), while for a Mauritius win it is 0-1 (4.62%).