The first match of the Canadian Shield Invitational tournament will feature Canada taking on Ukraine on Saturday at BMO Field in Toronto.
It’s the first match for both sides since March, when the Canucks defeated the USA 2-1, while the Blue and Yellow were beaten 3-0 by Belgium in their previous game.
Match preview
Fresh off a bronze medal in the CONCACAF Nations League earlier this year, the Canadians play the first of two warm-up matches before the Gold Cup, beginning this weekend.
Jesse Marsch’s team have suffered just one defeat in their previous six competitive fixtures and are undefeated in Canada since November 2023, when they lost 3-2 against Jamaica at BMO Field.
Since that 2023 Nations League defeat, this team have not lost a single match in normal time when netting multiple goals, winning five of those six outings.
Under the former Leeds United coach, Canada have gone on to win every match in which they scored first while losing every game in which they conceded the opener.
While many of the players called up for this tournament have experience in big club competitions, they are relatively young overall with 13 members of the 23-man squad 25 years of age or younger.
It has been over 14 years since they last won a match against a European side, defeating Belarus in a March 2011 friendly played in Turkey.
After failing to earn a promotion to the top flight of the UEFA Nations League this year, Ukraine’s next aim will be the upcoming World Cup in 2026.
Being in a qualifying group with former two-time world champions and 2022 runners-up France will be no easy task, but Serhiy Rebrov will fancy his team’s chances of making the playoffs at worst, in a pool that also features Azerbaijan and Iceland.
The Ukrainians have suffered just one defeat in their previous six competitive games, but that 3-0 loss at Belgium cost them a place in League A of next season’s Nations League.
Four of their five defeats suffered since June of last year have come away from home, with this team conceding three goals in each of those four road fixtures.
Ukraine are in danger of losing consecutive games Saturday for the first time all year and the first time since September 2024 (two).
There has only been one previous meeting between themselves and Canada, in 2010, when the Ukrainians erased a two-goal deficit and earned a 2-2 draw in Kyiv.
Canada International Friendlies form:
Canada form (all competitions):
Ukraine International Friendlies form:
Ukraine form (all competitions):
Team News
Canadian captain Alphonso Davies was not selected for this window as he is recovering from an ACL injury, while Moise Bombito and Alistair Johnston were surprise omissions.
On Saturday, Cyle Larin can surpass Milan Borjan for seventh in all-time caps, with the Mallorca striker currently at 80, Promise Akinpelu will seek his first senior cap and Stephen Eustaquio can reach the half-century mark for appearances with the national team.
Record goalscorer Jonathan David and Tani Oluwaseyi found the back of the net in their previous match as they claimed third place above the US at the Nations League.
In their playoff tie with Belgium earlier this year, Everton defender Vitaliy Mykolenko suffered a thigh injury and was not included in the Ukraine squad for this window.
Three players will hope to make their first appearances for the national team, including Mykola Mykhaylenko, Artem Bondarenko and Oleksandr Martynyuk.
Girona’s Viktor Tsygankov can move beyond Oleh Husiev for sixth in all-time goals, both of whom are currently on 13, while Andriy Shevchenko’s record of 48 goals is safe for now as Andriy Yarmolenko, who has two fewer with the national team, was not selected for this invitational event.
Canada possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Laryea, Cornelius, Waterman, Bassong; Eustaquio, Kone; Ahmed, J. David, Shaffelburg; Larin
Ukraine possible starting lineup:
Lunin; Zabarnyi, Matviyenko, Bondar; Zinchenko, Kalyuzhnyi, Yarmolyuk, Mykhaylenko; Hutsulyak, Sudakov; Yaremchuk
We say: Canada 1-1 Ukraine
The home crowd should give the Canadians a lift, but Ukraine have more than enough experience to punch back, and we expect a spirited affair between two evenly matched sides, with the Ukrainians only five places above the home team in the FIFA rankings.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Canada win with a probability of 45.91%. A win for Ukraine has a probability of 29.43% and a draw has a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Canada win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.29%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Ukraine win is 0-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.61%).