UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Playoffs A/B | 1st Leg

Mar 20, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Ukraine
3 - 1
Belgium

(Belgium win 4-3 on aggregate)

Hutsuliak (66'), Vanat (73'), Zabarnyi (78')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Lukaku (40')
Tielemans (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Ukraine and Belgium, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ukraine

All competitions

Last Game: Albania 1-2 Ukraine
Tuesday, November 19 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League B1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ukraine	0	0	0
2	Czech Republic	0	0	0
3	Georgia	0	0	0
4	Albania	0	0	0

Belgium

All competitions

Last Game: Israel 1-0 Belgium
Sunday, November 17 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	6	6	13
2	Italy	6	5	13
3	Belgium	6	-3	4
4	Israel	6	-8	4

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 41.36%. A win for Ukraine had a probability of 31.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Ukraine win was 1-0 (9.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.

Result
Ukraine	Draw	Belgium
31.43% ( -0.24)	27.21% ( -0.05)	41.36% ( 0.3)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
C	Liverpool	38	25	9	4	86	41	45	84
2	Arsenal	38	20	14	4	69	34	35	74
3	Manchester City Man City	38	21	8	9	72	44	28	71
4	Chelsea	38	20	9	9	64	43	21	69
5	Newcastle United Newcastle	38	20	6	12	68	47	21	66
6	Aston Villa	38	19	9	10	58	51	7	66
7	Nottingham Forest Nott'm Forest	38	19	8	11	58	46	12	65
8	Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton	38	16	13	9	66	59	7	61
9	Bournemouth	38	15	11	12	58	46	12	56
10	Brentford	38	16	8	14	66	57	9	56
11	Fulham	38	15	9	14	54	54	0	54
12	Crystal Palace	38	13	14	11	51	51	0	53
13	Everton	38	11	15	12	42	44	-2	48
14	West Ham United West Ham	38	11	10	17	46	62	-16	43
15	Manchester United Man Utd	38	11	9	18	44	54	-10	42
16	Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolves	38	12	6	20	54	69	-15	42
17	Tottenham Hotspur Spurs	38	11	5	22	64	65	-1	38
R	Leicester City Leicester	38	6	7	25	33	80	-47	25
R	Ipswich Town Ipswich	38	4	10	24	36	82	-46	22
R	Southampton	38	2	6	30	26	86	-60	12
					> Premier League Full Table

Ukraine	Draw	Belgium
1-0 @ 9.73% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 7.19% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 5.44% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.02% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 31.43%	1-1 @ 12.87% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.71% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.86% Total : 27.2%	0-1 @ 11.52% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.52% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 7.63% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 3.76% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.09% Total : 41.35%