UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League

Italy national football team
Nations League | League A
Oct 10, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Belgium national football team

Italy
2 - 2
Belgium

Cambiaso (1'), Retegui (24')
Donnarumma (90'), Pisilli (90+6')
FT(HT: 2-1)
De Cuyper (42'), Trossard (61')
Trossard (65')

The Match

Match Report

Belgium fight back from 2-0 down to record a potentially vital 2-2 draw against 10-man Italy in League A Group 2 of the UEFA Nations League.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Italy and Belgium, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Thursday's UEFA Nations League clash with Belgium.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Israel 1-2 Italy
Monday, September 9 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Belgium

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: France 2-0 Belgium
Monday, September 9 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 62.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Belgium had a probability of 15.54%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.91%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Belgium win it was 0-1 (5.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.

Result
ItalyDrawBelgium
62.81% (2.708 2.71)21.65% (-0.848 -0.85)15.54% (-1.86 -1.86)
Both teams to score 47.46% (-1.276 -1.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.97% (0.339 0.34)49.03% (-0.337 -0.34)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.89% (0.306 0.31)71.11% (-0.30500000000001 -0.31)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.98% (1.004 1)15.02% (-1.003 -1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.51% (1.87 1.87)43.49% (-1.87 -1.87)
Belgium Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.85% (-2.188 -2.19)44.15% (2.189 2.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.75% (-1.846 -1.85)80.24% (1.846 1.85)
Score Analysis
    Italy 62.8%
    Belgium 15.54%
    Draw 21.64%
ItalyDrawBelgium
1-0 @ 12.56% (0.25 0.25)
2-0 @ 11.91% (0.64 0.64)
2-1 @ 9.74% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
3-0 @ 7.53% (0.65 0.65)
3-1 @ 6.16% (0.182 0.18)
4-0 @ 3.57% (0.419 0.42)
4-1 @ 2.92% (0.183 0.18)
3-2 @ 2.52% (-0.078 -0.08)
5-0 @ 1.35% (0.2 0.2)
4-2 @ 1.19% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.11% (0.105 0.11)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 62.8%
1-1 @ 10.27% (-0.42 -0.42)
0-0 @ 6.63% (-0.092000000000001 -0.09)
2-2 @ 3.98% (-0.268 -0.27)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 21.64%
0-1 @ 5.42% (-0.417 -0.42)
1-2 @ 4.2% (-0.441 -0.44)
0-2 @ 2.22% (-0.319 -0.32)
1-3 @ 1.15% (-0.199 -0.2)
2-3 @ 1.09% (-0.145 -0.15)
Other @ 1.47%
Total : 15.54%

How you voted: Italy vs Belgium

Italy
76.1%
Draw
12.1%
Belgium
11.8%
305
Head to Head
Oct 10, 2021 2pm
Third-Place Final
Italy
2-1
Belgium
Barella (46'), Berardi (65' pen.)
Di Lorenzo (30'), Palmieri (82')
De Ketelaere (86')
Vertonghen (14'), Witsel (56'), Alderweireld (63')
> Preview
Jul 2, 2021 8pm
Quarter-Finals
Belgium
1-2
Italy
Lukaku (45+2' pen.)
Tielemans (21')
Barella (31'), Insigne (44')
Verratti (20'), Berardi (90')
> Match Report
Jun 13, 2016 8pm
Group Stage
Belgium
0-2
Italy

Vertonghen (91')
Giaccherini (32'), Pelle (93')
Chiellini (66'), Eder (75'), Bonucci (78'), Motta (84')
> Match Report
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International Friendlies
Belgium
3-1
Italy
> Match Report
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