Euro 2024

European Championship | Group Stage

Jun 20, 2024 at 8pm UK

VELTINS-Arena

Spain
vs.
Italy

Preview

Data Analysis

Predicted XI

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's European Championship clash between Spain and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Spain could line up for Thursday's Euro 2024 clash with Italy.

Form, Standings, Stats

Spain

All competitions

European Championship

Last Game: Spain 3-0 Croatia
Saturday, June 15 at 5pm in European Championship

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Spain	1	3	3
2	Italy	1	1	3
3	Albania	2	-1	1
4	Croatia	2	-3	1

Italy

All competitions

European Championship

Last Game: Italy 2-1 Albania
Saturday, June 15 at 8pm in European Championship

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Spain	1	3	3
2	Italy	1	1	3
3	Albania	2	-1	1
4	Croatia	2	-3	1

This will be the 11th encounter between Spain and Italy at a major tournament - a record between two European nations. Now meeting for the fifth straight Euros, they have been familiar foes in the Nations League too, and La Roja's run of success over the Azzurri could continue. A more diverse attacking approach paid dividends against Croatia, while Italy's defence remains dubious, so it may be Spain celebrating safe passage to the last 16. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Spain win with a probability of 45.44%. A win for Italy has a probability of 29.99% and a draw has a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Italy win is 1-2 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.54%).

Result
Spain	Draw	Italy
45.44% ( -2.65)	24.57% ( 1.12)	29.99% ( 1.53)

Both teams to score 57.11% (

-2.87)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.43% (

-4.23)

45.57% (

4.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.1% (

-4.16)

67.9% (

4.16)

Spain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.84% (

-2.75)

20.16% (

2.75)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.56% (

-4.6)

52.44% (

4.6)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.53% (

-1.09)

28.47% (

1.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.76% (

-1.4)

64.24% (

1.4)

Score Analysis

Spain 45.44%

Italy 29.99%

Draw 24.56%

Spain	Draw	Italy
2-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.19) 1-0 @ 9.19% ( 0.86) 2-0 @ 7.36% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 4.94% ( -0.56) 3-0 @ 3.93% ( -0.31) 3-2 @ 3.1% ( -0.46) 4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.43) 4-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.28) 4-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.32) Other @ 2.88% Total : 45.44%	1-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.75) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.3) 0-0 @ 5.74% ( 0.97) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.24) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.56%	1-2 @ 7.25% ( 0.26) 0-1 @ 7.21% ( 1.04) 0-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.53) 1-3 @ 3.04% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.21) 0-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.17) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.68% Total : 29.99%