Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Italy

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Italy 2-1 Venezuela
Thursday, March 21 at 9pm in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	8	18	20
2	Italy	8	7	14
3	Ukraine	8	3	14
4	North Macedonia	8	-10	8
5	Malta	8	-18	0

While Italy are still a work in progress, they should possess enough guile to unlock Ecuador's increasingly mean defence - but La Tri can be expected to score too. With one eye on the summer, both managers may experiment during the second half, so a draw represents a decent result for either side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Italy had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Italy win was 0-1 (10.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.

Result
Ecuador	Draw	Italy
39.5% ( 0.02)	27.86% ( -0)	32.63% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 47.79% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.93% (

0.01)

58.07% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.25% (

0.01)

78.74% (

-0.01)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.33% (

0.01)

28.67% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.51% (

0.02)

64.49% (

-0.02)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67% (

-0.01)

33% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.41% (

-0.01)

69.58% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Ecuador 39.49%

Italy 32.63%

Draw 27.86%

Ecuador	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 11.81% 2-1 @ 8.19% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.38% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.41% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.07% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.89% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.07% ( 0) 4-0 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 1.71% Total : 39.49%	1-1 @ 13.1% 0-0 @ 9.46% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( 0) Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.86%	0-1 @ 10.48% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.27% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.82% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.69% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.15% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.68% Other @ 2.55% Total : 32.63%