Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Though Venezuela have shown signs of improvement, Italy are also trying to turn over a new leaf under Luciano Spalletti, who is not afraid to take the game to any opponent. The reigning European champions should have too much depth for their South American counterparts to contend with, but it could be a fairly close contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 76.35%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 7.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.96%) and 3-0 (11.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.42%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (3.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Italy in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Italy.

Result
Italy	Draw	Venezuela
76.35% ( 0.02)	15.69% ( -0.01)	7.96% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 41.87% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.3% (

-0.01)

42.7% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.9% (

-0.01)

65.1% (

0.01)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.59% (

9.42% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.34% (

0.01)

31.66% (

-0.01)

Venezuela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.22% (

-0.03)

53.78% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.86% (

-0.02)

87.14% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Italy 76.34%

Venezuela 7.96%

Draw 15.69%

Italy	Draw	Venezuela
2-0 @ 14.13% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 11.96% 3-0 @ 11.13% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.77% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.91% ( -0) 4-0 @ 6.58% ( 0) 4-1 @ 4.08% ( -0) 5-0 @ 3.11% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.93% 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.22% ( 0) Other @ 3.13% Total : 76.34%	1-1 @ 7.42% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.06% ( 0) 2-2 @ 2.72% ( -0) Other @ 0.49% Total : 15.69%	0-1 @ 3.14% ( -0) 1-2 @ 2.3% ( -0) 0-2 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 1.54% Total : 7.96%