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Euro 2020 header take 8

Euro 2024
Italy national football team
Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Nov 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
North Macedonia national football team

Italy
5 - 2
N. Macedonia

Darmian (17'), Chiesa (41', 45+3'), Raspadori (81'), El Shaarawy (90+3')
Zaniolo (72'), Acerbi (89')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Atanasov (52', 74')
Churlinov (79'), Ashkovski (80'), Ristovski (84'), Milevski (84'), Serafimov (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Italy and North Macedonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Friday's Euro 2024 qualifying Group C clash with North Macedonia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: England 3-1 Italy
Tuesday, October 17 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Current Group C Standings P GD PTS
1England61616
2Ukraine7313
3Italy6410
4North Macedonia6-77
5Malta7-160

North Macedonia

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: N. Macedonia 3-1 Armenia
Tuesday, October 17 at 2pm in International Friendlies
Current Group C Standings P GD PTS
1England61616
2Ukraine7313
3Italy6410
4North Macedonia6-77
5Malta7-160

We said: Italy 2-0 North Macedonia

 Proving to be one of Italy's bogey teams down the years, North Macedonia have never failed to score against their more esteemed counterparts and should play with the shackles off on Friday, having already been condemned to their fate. However, the Lynxes' luck against the Euro 2020 holders is sure to run out soon, and with the Olimpico crowd behind them, we can only picture the Azzurri coming up trumps, thus giving themselves a crucial injection of confidence ahead of Monday's crunch clash with the Ukrainians. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 70.63%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 10.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.43%) and 3-0 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.75%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 0-1 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
ItalyDrawNorth Macedonia
70.63% (0.364 0.36) 18.45% (-0.416 -0.42) 10.91% (0.053000000000001 0.05)
Both teams to score 44.58% (1.483 1.48)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.17% (1.915 1.92)45.83% (-1.914 -1.91)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.85% (1.791 1.79)68.15% (-1.792 -1.79)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.28% (0.654 0.65)11.72% (-0.653 -0.65)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.15% (1.383 1.38)36.85% (-1.382 -1.38)
North Macedonia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.5% (1.317 1.32)49.5% (-1.316 -1.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.69% (0.907 0.91)84.31% (-0.907 -0.91)
Score Analysis
    Italy 70.62%
    North Macedonia 10.91%
    Draw 18.45%
ItalyDrawNorth Macedonia
2-0 @ 13.33% (-0.39 -0.39)
1-0 @ 12.43% (-0.7 -0.7)
3-0 @ 9.53% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
2-1 @ 9.38% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
3-1 @ 6.7% (0.227 0.23)
4-0 @ 5.11% (0.112 0.11)
4-1 @ 3.59% (0.21 0.21)
3-2 @ 2.36% (0.165 0.17)
5-0 @ 2.19% (0.102 0.1)
5-1 @ 1.54% (0.127 0.13)
4-2 @ 1.26% (0.118 0.12)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 70.62%
1-1 @ 8.75% (-0.148 -0.15)
0-0 @ 5.8% (-0.486 -0.49)
2-2 @ 3.3% (0.151 0.15)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 18.45%
0-1 @ 4.08% (-0.177 -0.18)
1-2 @ 3.08% (0.064 0.06)
0-2 @ 1.44% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 10.91%

How you voted: Italy vs N. Macedonia

Italy
82.0%
Draw
13.5%
North Macedonia
4.5%
89
Head to Head
Sep 9, 2023 7.45pm
Group Stage
N. Macedonia
1-1
Italy
Bardhi (81')
Manev (68'), Alimi (88')
Immobile (47')
Dimarco (70'), Tonali (75'), Zaniolo (79')
> Preview
Mar 24, 2022 7.45pm
Play-offs - Semi-finals
Italy
0-1
N. Macedonia
Trajkovski (90+2')
Spirovski (80')
> Match Report
Oct 6, 2017 7.45pm
Group Stage
Italy
1-1
N. Macedonia
Chiellini (40')
Trajkovski (77')
> Match Report
Oct 9, 2016 7.45pm
Group Stage
N. Macedonia
2-3
Italy
Nestorovski (57'), Hasani (60')
Belotti (24'), Immobile (75', 92')
> Match Report
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