UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League

Belgium national football team
Nations League | League A
Nov 14, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Roi Baudouin
Italy national football team

Belgium
0 - 1
Italy


Castagne (28'), Onana (67'), Al Dakhil (77')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Tonali (11')
Bastoni (45+2'), Kean (90+1')

The Match

Match Report

Sandro Tonali scores the only goal as Italy reach the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals thanks to a 1-0 win away in Belgium.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Belgium and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Thursday's UEFA Nations League clash with Belgium.

Form, Standings, Stats

Belgium

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Belgium 1-2 France
Monday, October 14 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Italy

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Italy 4-1 Israel
Monday, October 14 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 51.11%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Italy had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (7.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
BelgiumDrawItaly
51.11% (1.1 1.1)24.88% (-0.191 -0.19)24% (-0.911 -0.91)
Both teams to score 51.17% (-0.352 -0.35)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.93% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)51.07% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.07% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)72.93% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Belgium Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.02% (0.45100000000001 0.45)19.98% (-0.452 -0.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.84% (0.724 0.72)52.15% (-0.724 -0.72)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.95% (-0.80500000000001 -0.81)36.05% (0.804 0.8)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.17% (-0.83 -0.83)72.83% (0.83 0.83)
Score Analysis
    Belgium 51.1%
    Italy 24%
    Draw 24.88%
BelgiumDrawItaly
1-0 @ 11.59% (0.16 0.16)
2-1 @ 9.53% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
2-0 @ 9.34% (0.259 0.26)
3-1 @ 5.12% (0.103 0.1)
3-0 @ 5.01% (0.207 0.21)
3-2 @ 2.61% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 2.06% (0.069 0.07)
4-0 @ 2.02% (0.11 0.11)
4-2 @ 1.05% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 51.1%
1-1 @ 11.83% (-0.09 -0.09)
0-0 @ 7.2% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-2 @ 4.86% (-0.076 -0.08)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 24.88%
0-1 @ 7.35% (-0.161 -0.16)
1-2 @ 6.04% (-0.181 -0.18)
0-2 @ 3.75% (-0.166 -0.17)
1-3 @ 2.05% (-0.109 -0.11)
2-3 @ 1.65% (-0.063 -0.06)
0-3 @ 1.28% (-0.086 -0.09)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 24%

How you voted: Belgium vs Italy

Belgium
24.2%
Draw
27.9%
Italy
47.9%
376
Head to Head
Oct 10, 2024 7.45pm
League A
Italy
2-2
Belgium
Cambiaso (1'), Retegui (24')
Donnarumma (90'), Pisilli (90+6')
Pellegrini (40')
De Cuyper (42'), Trossard (61')
Trossard (65')
> Match Report
Oct 10, 2021 2pm
Third-Place Final
Italy
2-1
Belgium
Barella (46'), Berardi (65' pen.)
Di Lorenzo (30'), Palmieri (82')
De Ketelaere (86')
Vertonghen (14'), Witsel (56'), Alderweireld (63')
> Preview
Jul 2, 2021 8pm
Quarter-Finals
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1-2
Italy
Lukaku (45+2' pen.)
Tielemans (21')
Barella (31'), Insigne (44')
Verratti (20'), Berardi (90')
> Match Report
Jun 13, 2016 8pm
Group Stage
Belgium
0-2
Italy

Vertonghen (91')
Giaccherini (32'), Pelle (93')
Chiellini (66'), Eder (75'), Bonucci (78'), Motta (84')
> Match Report
Nov 13, 2015 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Belgium
3-1
Italy
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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