Tanzania and Madagascar will raise the curtain on their respective 2025 COSAFA Cup campaigns with a meeting at the Toyota Stadium in Bloemfontein on Saturday evening.
The teams have both been drawn in Group C of the annual regional competition, where they will battle it out with Eswatini for a place in the semi-finals.
Match preview
Tanzania were one of four teams to have participated in the inaugural COSAFA Cup edition back in 1997, which was, however, one of only three appearances at this level for the East Africans in a South African-dominated event.
Hemed Suleiman's men last featured in this tournament back in 2017 when they finished top of Group A and made it through to the last four before ultimately settling for a third-place finish thanks to a 1-0 triumph over Lesotho.
After a late invitation to this year's showpiece due to Morocco's sudden withdrawal, the Taifa Stars will be keen to make an impression and build on their bronze medal last time out, albeit with far more competition this time around.
A winning start this weekend would set Tanzania up nicely for their final group-stage involvement, but they will head into Sunday's clash currently on a run of four consecutive defeats since beating Ethiopia and Guinea in November.
More worryingly for Tanzania, all four losses have come without them finding the back of the net, a weakness that must surely be corrected if they are to avoid an early COSAFA Cup exit 10 years on from a disastrous show in the 2015 instalment, which yielded no goals or points from three outings.
Unlike Tanzania, Madagascar have been regular COSAFA Cup participants to a decent degree, having featured in 12 previous tournaments ahead of the latest chapter in South Africa over the next couple of weeks.
However, Corentin Martins's men were absent from the most recent two editions, with their last appearance coming in 2022's run to the quarter-final, which ended in a disappointing 2-0 defeat to beaten finalists Namibia.
While some nations have been accused of taking the COSAFA Cup with levity, Madagascar have no such plans, as they intend to use the competition to ramp up their preparation for the upcoming African Nations Championship.
The Barea could really do with a victory in Sunday's curtain raiser off the back of only two wins from their last 11 matches either side of the new year across AFCON, World Cup and CHAN qualifying duty.
Having been placed in one of two three-team groups, Madagascar have little margin for error in their quest to reach the knockout stages, and anything less than a victory this weekend will leave them looking over their shoulders.
Tanzania form (all competitions):
Madagascar form (all competitions):
Team News
Madagascar's squad for the COSAFA Cup is largely dominated by home-based players with Alphonce Mabula and Simon Msuva the only two members currently playing their trade outside of Africa.
Thirty-one-year-old Msuva is one of the more experienced players currently on the plane to South Africa for Madagascar and will need to come to the fore.
Onja Andrianina and Mimisoa Alexandre are favourites to feature in the centre of the pitch for Madagascar at the expense of the likes of Tokiniaina Tinoh and Rayan Hery.
Up front, forward Toky Niaina should get the nod to lead the line with Manoatsao Felicite and Fenohasina Gilles providing some much-needed support from either flank.
Tanzania possible starting lineup:
Suleiman; Remmy, Abdallah, Masinde, Msindo; Sitambuli, Pipino, Kagoma; Denis, Msuva, Daudi
Madagascar possible starting lineup:
Hasina; Stephano, Aurelien, Claude, Toky; Alexandre, Onja, Lalaina; Niaina, Gilles, Felicite
We say: Tanzania 1-0 Madagascar
Goals have been hard to come by for both teams, and we are expecting a low-scoring affair here.
That said, we are tipping Tanzania to pull off a narrow win and come away with maximum points.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Madagascar win with a probability of 47.75%. A draw has a probability of 30.1% and a win for Tanzania has a probability of 22.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Madagascar win is 0-1 with a probability of 17.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (10.58%) and 1-2 (7.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 0-0 (14.32%), while for a Tanzania win it is 1-0 (10.41%).