Malta welcome Lithuania to the National Stadium in Ta' Qali for their third 2026 World Cup qualifier on Saturday evening.
The two European minnows, ranked outside the top 140 in the FIFA World Rankings, are joined in Group G by the Netherlands, Poland and Finland.
Match preview
Malta have finished rock bottom of their World Cup qualification group in each of the last seven campaigns and they are on course to continue as a basement nation after losing their opening two Group G fixtures to Finland and Poland in March.
Under new head coach Emilio De Leo who was appointed in January, Malta suffered a narrow 1-0 home loss to Finland before going down 2-0 away against Poland, failing to convert any of their eight shots on target across the two matches which both ended with a man sent off.
The Reds, who already find themselves four points behind the top two in Group G, have never qualified for a major international tournament and have consistently struggled to put themselves in the frame for a place at the World Cup, having won just three of their 114 qualifiers in total.
Ranked 169th in the world by FIFA, Malta have won one and drawn one of their previous three meetings with Lithuania, so there is reason for the Reds to be quietly optimistic of avoiding their 100th defeat in World Cup qualifying on Saturday.
An additional boost for Malta is the fact that Lithuania have failed to win any of their last nine international matches, ending an eight-game losing streak with a 2-2 comeback draw with Finland last time out.
The Tricolours were trailing by two goals inside the opening 17 minutes before strikes either side of half time from Armandas Kucys and Gvidas Gineitis salvaged a point on home soil - Edgaras Jankauskas’s side having now found the net in nine of their last 12 fixtures across all competitions.
Ranked 143rd in the world by FIFA, Lithuania have also never qualified for a major tournament as an independent nation; their best effort in World Cup qualifying was back in 1996 when they accumulated 16 points from 10 games to finish third in their group.
Since 2012, Lithuania have failed to come out on top in any of their last 13 World Cup qualifiers (D3 L10), failing to score in nine of those including each of their last five. However, the Tricolour have collected four points from their previous two World Cup qualification encounters with Malta (W1 D1), including a 2-0 home win in October 2016.
Malta World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:
Malta form (all competitions):
Lithuania World Cup Qualifying - Europe form:
Lithuania form (all competitions):
Team News
Wigan Athletic defender James Carragher, the son of Liverpool legend Jamie Carragher, acquired Maltese citizenship in February and is eligible through his father’s grandfather and mother. He made his international debut in March and is available for selection once again on Saturday.
However, Ilyas Chouaref will serve the first of a two-match suspension this weekend after being send off in the previous match against Poland. Kurt Shaw and Gabriel Mentz are also banned, but will be available to return to face the Netherlands next Tuesday.
Reims’ Teddy Teuma is expected to start in midfield; the 31-year-old and Sliema Wanderers forward Kyrian Nwoko have scored four international goal which is more than any other player in the current squad.
As for Lithuania, experienced midfielder Fedor Cernych is set to become just the second player in the nation’s history to earn 100 caps; he currently sits just two appearances behind Saulius Mikoliunas on the all-time list.
Edvinas Girdvainis and Kipras Kazukolovas are both expected to start in defence, while Gineitis, Artur Dolznikov and Justas Lasickas could all provide support in the final third for central striker Kucys.
Malta possible starting lineup:
Bonello; Z. Muscat, Carragher, Pepe; J. Mbong, Guillaumier, Teuma, Satariano, Camenzuli, Nwoko, P. Mbong
Lithuania possible starting lineup:
Gertmonas; Sirvys, Kazukolovas, Girdvainis, Milasius; Matulevicius, Utkus; Dolznikov, Gineitis, Lasickas; Kucys
We say: Malta 0-1 Lithuania
Malta put up an admirable fight in their opening two qualifiers and they could be involved in another closely-contested battle with Lithuania this weekend.
The hosts have been lacking a cutting edge in the final third, while the visitors have scored in nine of their last 12 internationals, so with that in mind, we are backing Jankauskas’s side to come out on top.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Malta win with a probability of 42.08%. A win for Lithuania has a probability of 29.51% and a draw has a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malta win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Lithuania win is 0-1 (10.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.16%).