China and Bahrain draw the curtain on their 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying journey when they go head to head at the Longxing Football Stadium on Tuesday.
It has been a hugely underwhelming campaign for both nations, who find themselves in the bottom two places in the standings, and they will look to bow out of the race with their head held high.
Match preview
China’s hopes of finishing in the fourth qualifying group phase came to an end on Thursday when they fell to a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Indonesia in their crunch Group C clash.
Oxford United man Ole Lennard Ter Haar Romenij made the difference at the Gelora Bung Karno Stadium as he converted his penalty just before half time to hand Indonesia three huge points in their qualifying race.
With that result, China have lost each of their last four matches in the qualifiers, conceding seven goals and scoring just once since beating Bahrain 1-0 in November thanks to a 91st-minute strike from Yuning Zhang.
Branko Ivankovic’s men have lost seven of their nine games in Group C while claiming two wins to collect six points and sit rock-bottom in the standings, albeit only below Tuesday’s visitors on goal difference.
Like the home side, Bahrain were left empty handed yet again as they fell to a 2-0 defeat against Saudi Arabia when the two nations squared off at the Bahrain National Stadium on Thursday.
Musab Al Juwayr struck in the 16th minute to set Saudi Arabia off to a dream start before Abdulrahman Alobud man opened his account for the Green Falcons to double their advantage.
Bahrain have now lost each of their most recent three group games and have failed to taste victory in any of the eight outings since kicking off the campaign with a 1-0 win over 10-man Australia in September 2024.
This underwhelming run of results has been owing to their toothless display at the attacking end of the pitch, where Dragan Talajic’s men currently hold the poorest record in the qualifiers with just five goals scored so far.
While Bahrain will be looking to close out the campaign on a positive note, they go up against an opposing side whom they have failed to get the better of in any of their last nine meetings, losing four and claiming five draws since September 1981.
China World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
Bahrain World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
Bahrain form (all competitions):
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
Team News
Having made his debut in the win over Australia back in March, Serginho was handed a starting role in Thursday’s loss against Indonesia and should retain his role in the XI on Tuesday.
Should that be the case, the Beijing Guoan man should team up with Wang Yudong and club teammate Yuning Zhang in attack while we expect a midfield trio of Haoyang Xu, Shangyuan Wang and Yongjing Cao.
At the defensive end of the pitch, Hetao Hu, Chenjie Zu, Pengfei Han and Shanghai Shenhua man Zexiang Yang should form the back four, shielding veteran goalkeeper Dalei Wang between the sticks.
Like China, Bahrain head into Tuesday’s clash with a clean bill of health and no suspension concerns and Talajic could name a shuffled unchanged XI at the Longxing Football Stadium.
Mohamed Marhoon, who netted four goals in the final four games for Al Kuwait in the just-concluded Kuwait Premier League, was a standout performer against Saudi Arabia and could form the two-man attack with veteran Mahdi Abduljabbar.
China possible starting lineup:
D Wang; C Zhu, P Han, Y Cao, Z Yang, Haoyang, H Hu, S Wang; Y Zhang, Serginho, Yudong
Bahrain possible starting lineup:
Lutfalla; Al-Shamsan, Benaddi, Al-Hayam, Al-Khalasi; Al-Sherooqi, Al-Aswad, Saeed, AI-Humaidan; Marhoon, Abduljabbar
We say: China 2-0 Bahrain
With their qualifying dreams over, China and Bahrain will be playing for pride here as they look to go down swinging following what has been a forgettable run in the third round. China boasts a superior and more experienced squad on paper and we predict they will make the most of their home advantage here.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bahrain win with a probability of 38.51%. A win for China has a probability of 33.78% and a draw has a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahrain win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.12%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest China win is 1-0 (10.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.07%).