Gremio prepare to welcome Corinthians for a Brasileirao Serie A encounter, with the hosts aiming to extend their impressive winning streak.
Both sides sit level on 15 points and are separated by only one place in the table, but it is the Imortal Tricolor who carry the greater momentum, arriving with three consecutive victories across all competitions, while the visitors continue to labour in attack and form.
Match preview
Gremio have built their recent upturn in form on renewed defensive solidity, going four consecutive matches across all competitions without conceding a single goal.
Mano Menezes’s men have played two league matches in that time, first edging Bahia 1-0 at home before securing their first away league win of 2025 with a composed 2-0 victory against Juventude last time out.
Sandwiched between those league fixtures was a goalless draw away to CSA in the Copa do Brasil, alongside a professional 1-0 win over Sportivo Luqueno in the Copa Sudamericana.
Returning home to Arena do Gremio, the hosts will feel confident of continuing their excellent run, particularly given their strong home record this season, where they have lost just once in six league outings, winning three and drawing two.
However, history provides a cautionary note, as Gremio have failed to beat Corinthians in any of their last 12 meetings across all competitions, a run that stretches back to December 2018 and includes nine draws and three defeats, including a 3-0 loss at home in December 2024.
Corinthians secured that emphatic victory the last time these two sides met, but they arrive in vastly different shape, with recent performances raising concern.
Dorival Junior’s men may technically be unbeaten in three successive league matches, but that statistic disguises deeper attacking struggles, with Timao failing to score in each of their last three competitive games.
Goalless draws against Atletico Mineiro and Bragantino in the league have come along with a 1-0 defeat to Huracan in the Sudamericana, and even prior to that, they could only manage one goal in each of their three preceding victories.
Scoring has become a persistent issue for Corinthians, with the Sao Paulo giants finding the net once or not at all in each of their last eight matches in all competitions, and their away record is even more concerning, with 12 successive away matches producing no more than a single goal per game since February.
Gremio Brasileiro form:
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
Gremio form (all competitions):
- D
- L
- D
- W
- W
- W
Corinthians Brasileiro form:
- L
- W
- L
- W
- D
- D
Corinthians form (all competitions):
- W
- W
- W
- D
- L
- D
Team News
Gremio remain without midfield trio Gustavo Cuellar, Edenilson and Joao Lucas, all struggling with muscle injuries, while Miguel Monsalve is nursing a thigh problem.
Joao Pedro is sidelined with an ankle issue and Igor Sorrete is recovering from a broken wrist, leaving options in midfield and defence slightly stretched.
Francis Amuzu is battling to recover from a virus in time for selection, while centre-back Rodrigo Ely remains a long-term absentee due to a serious knee injury.
Corinthians will be without several key figures, including Gustavo Henrique who is sidelined with a groin injury, and leading forward Yuri Alberto who remains out with a persistent lower back issue
Potential replacement Memphis Depay is unavailable as he represents the Netherlands at international level, and Angel Romero is also absent with Paraguay, further depleting their attacking options
Giovane is finalising a move to Italian football, while Alex Santana has departed on loan to Gremio, adding to the sense of disruption in the Timao camp.
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Martins, Leonardo, Kannemann, Marlon; Villasanti, Dodi; Olivera, Cristaldo, Alysson; Braithwaite
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Souza; Matheuzinho, Ramalho, Caca, Bidu; Raniele; Hector, Maycon, Bidon, Magno; Inacio
We say: Gremio 1-0 Corinthians
Gremio’s renewed defensive solidity and impressive home form make them favourites to edge this contest, especially with Corinthians arriving short of attacking confidence, missing several key players, and struggling for goals on the road.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Gremio win with a probability of 54.51%. A draw has a probability of 25.3% and a win for Corinthians has a probability of 20.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.99%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.84%), while for a Corinthians win it is 0-1 (7.52%).