Struggling Cork City welcome Bohemians to Turners Cross in the League of Ireland on Friday night.
The hosts are deep in relegation trouble, while the club from the capital make the trip to Ireland’s second city looking to keep tabs with leaders Shamrock Rovers.
Match preview
It has been a difficult return to the top flight for 2017 Irish champions Cork, who already look to be cut adrift in the bottom two with Sligo Rovers.
Cork are one point above basement boys Sligo, but are 10 points adrift of Waterford in eighth, so a fight between the two sides looks set to play out to decide who is relegated automatically, and who goes into the playoff.
Now exactly halfway through the season, Cork need to arrest a seven-game winless run as soon as possible, if they want to maintain the slim hopes they may still have of chasing down the sides above them.
Gerard Nash’s men did at least end a four-game losing run in their last outing, drawing 1-1 here with Shelbourne, meaning they have scored at least once in all seven of those games, despite failing to win any of them.
Cork need a big second half of the season, and home form is set to be key, because 85% of their points have come at Turners Cross this season.
Just one of their two wins this season came here against their upcoming opponents in the corresponding fixture back at the end of February too, but Bohemians did respond by winning in their previous meeting in Dublin in April, as James McManus netted the solitary goal five minutes from time.
That is one of a number of victories Bohs have enjoyed since that early-season defeat here, as they were also victorious in their last outing before the international break, beating Derry City 1-0.
All of Bohemians’ last 10 matches have been settled by a one-goal margin, with seven going in their favour, and that has allowed Alan Reynolds’s men to keep pace with Shamrock at the summit.
The visitors enter this clash six points adrift of the leaders, but they still have a game in hand coming up next month which they will hope to take advantage of.
Bohemians lost their last away game to Drogheda, and have scored the fewest goals of any club in the top six though, so Reynolds must ensure they continue to be efficient if the goals do not start flowing.
Cork City League of Ireland Premier form:
Cork City form (all competitions):
Bohemians League of Ireland Premier form:
Bohemians form (all competitions):
Team News
Cork are set to remain without Ruairi Keating, Benny Couto and Conor Drinan due to injury ahead of this clash on Friday night, but the latter two are believed to be closing in on returns.
Malik Dijksteel returned to make a cameo off the bench in their last outing, and his Dutch compatriot Djenairo Daniels is the club’s top scorer this season with four goals, all of which have come in the last five games, after joining in April from Icelandic football.
Bohemians are set to be without English pair Connor Parsons and Alex Lacey for this away trip, with the latter still recovering from a hamstring injury.
Reynolds started without an out-and-out striker in the win over Derry, with Colm Whelan dropping out, and former £10m Premier League man Lys Mousset settling for a place on the bench once more
Cork City possible starting lineup:
Troost; Mbeng, Anderson, Lyons, McLaughlin; Murray, Crowley, O’Sullivan; Maguire, Daniels, Dijksteel
Bohemians possible starting lineup:
Chorazka; Morahan, Grehan, Cornwall, Flores; Tierney, Devoy, McDonnell, Rooney; Clarke, Whelan
We say: Cork City 1-2 Bohemians
Bohemians are becoming the masters of a 1-0 win, with their last three victories all coming by that scoreline, but they will be hard pressed to keep Cork at bay in attack, as they have been finding the net with regularity, despite not picking up points to show for it.
The visitors are still clear favourites though, in what could be an eighth straight win by a one-goal margin.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bohemians win with a probability of 46.77%. A win for Cork City has a probability of 27.82% and a draw has a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bohemians win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Cork City win is 1-0 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.07%).