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Uruguay national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage | 2nd Leg
Jun 11, 2025 at 12am UK
Estadio Centenario
Venezuela national football team

Uruguay
2 - 0
Venezuela

Aguirre (43'), De Arrascaeta (47')
Araujo (45+1'), Nandez (45+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Herrera (15'), Andres Martinez (45+3'), Segovia (90+1')

Preview: Uruguay vs Venezuela - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Uruguay and Venezuela, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Uruguay seek to arrest their poor form in the World Cup 2026 qualifiers when they host playoff-chasing Venezuela in Tuesday’s matchday 16 contest at Estadio Centenario.


Although Marcelo Bielsa's side are winless in four matches in CONMEBOL qualifying, they remain in the coveted top six spots with three games remaining, and La Celeste hope to fend off their visitors' challenge by avoiding another disappointing result.



Match preview

Uruguay's Darwin Nunez in action on November 19, 2024

Out-of-form Uruguay enter their 16th qualifying match looking over their shoulders in the race to participate in next year's tournament.

Bielsa's men began qualifying by securing four wins from their opening six fixtures, losing one and drawing another, which placed them in a promising position in the initial matchdays.

However, Los Charruas’ form has plummeted since, having won just one more match, a 3-2 victory over Colombia in November 2024.

A particularly significant issue for Bielsa's team has been the absence of goals in the eight games they have failed to win, not scoring in the four matches prior to beating Colombia — Uruguay played out goalless draws with Paraguay, Venezuela and Ecuador while losing to Peru.

Only once have La Celeste found the net in the subsequent four matches — a 1-1 draw in Brazil — and they have failed to score in defeats to Argentina (1-0) and Paraguay (2-0), which were sandwiched between a goalless match in Bolivia.

While they currently occupy fifth place, the penultimate of the six direct qualifying spots, Tuesday’s seventh-placed opponents will aim to secure a positive result in midweek to keep the two-time world champions anxious about their prospects.

Fernando Batista’s side enter matchday 16 just three points adrift of Bielsa’s team, with the gap having closed over the last two rounds as the Red Wine have achieved back-to-back victories while the Sky Blue have managed just one point from six in that period.

Having begun qualifying with two wins from their opening four matches (one loss), La Vinotinto appeared to be putting themselves in a promising position as early outsiders for a ticket to their maiden World Cup in 2026.

However, an extended dip in form, during which they failed to win in nine matches, seemingly derailed that possibility.

Nevertheless, consecutive victories over Peru and Bolivia have lifted Batista’s team to seventh place, the Inter-confederation playoff spot, but they can aspire for higher placement with Uruguay and Colombia three points ahead of them, while faltering Brazil sit four points above.

Venezuela’s last two wins have come without conceding, a statistic not lost on the visitors as they prepare to face their goal-shy hosts.

Uruguay World Cup Qualifying - South America form:

Uruguay form (all competitions):

Venezuela World Cup Qualifying - South America form:

Venezuela form (all competitions):



Team News

Salomon Rondon celebrates scoring for Venezuela on July 5, 2024

Joaquin Piquerez replaced Mathias Olivera at half-time against Paraguay and could start ahead of the Napoli left-back.

Without the suspended Darwin Nunez, who leads La Celeste’s goalscoring charts with four strikes, Bielsa’s team must devise strategies to avoid stifling their scoring for the fourth qualifier in a row.

Salomon Rondon has netted five of Venezuela's 15 goals in qualifying, accounting for 33.3% of the away side's efforts, and the experienced forward hopes to play a crucial role for La Vinotinto.

Jose Andres Martinez and Telasco Segovia, who delivered impressive performances out of possession for Batista’s team in diverse midfield roles, are expected to maintain their positions in the starting lineup for this important trip to the two-time world champions.

Uruguay possible starting lineup:

Mele; Varela, R. Araujo, Gimenez, Piquerez; Bentancur, Ugarte, De Arrascaeta; Pellistri, Aguirre, M. Araujo

Venezuela possible starting lineup:

Romo; Aramburu, Ferraresi, Angel, Navarro; Bello, J.A. Martinez; Savarino, Segovia, J. Martinez; Rondon



SM words green background

We say: Uruguay 0-0 Venezuela

While one could be tempted to back Uruguay for a narrow win, especially against a Venezuela side that have lost four consecutive away matches in qualifying, La Celeste’s failure to score in three of their previous home fixtures in the series suggests that both teams could share the points.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.





 


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Written by
Anthony Brown

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Uruguay win with a probability of 58.71%. A draw has a probability of 24.2% and a win for Venezuela has a probability of 17.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win is 1-0 with a probability of 14.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (12.15%) and 2-1 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.24%), while for a Venezuela win it is 0-1 (6.77%).


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