With destiny no longer in their own hands, Puerto Rico must claim all three points when they welcome Saint Vincent & the Grenadines on Tuesday if they are to keep alive any hopes of progressing to the third round of the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers in CONCACAF.
The Blue Hurricane approach this decisive fixture sitting third in Group F on four points, three behind the qualification spots, while the visitors have already been condemned to elimination despite registering a win last time out.
Match preview
Puerto Rico had their fate firmly in their grasp heading into matchday three with a superior goal difference to El Salvador in third and standing a chance to move top of the group with victory.
However, following their 1-0 loss away to Suriname in that crucial tie, the Blue Hurricane now find themselves walking a tightrope as they attempt to stay in the race for the next phase.
Jaden Montnor’s 79th-minute strike in that encounter was the first goal Charlie Trout’s men had conceded during this qualification cycle, having opened with a goalless result at El Salvador before recording a staggering 8-0 demolition of Anguilla on matchday two back in June 2024.
That emphatic triumph could ultimately prove meaningless, with the Puerto Ricans now needing results to go their way on two fronts or risk yet another early exit — extending a pattern of falling short before reaching the final round of World Cup qualification throughout the 21st century.
Their qualification hopes rest on El Salvador losing against Suriname, while Los Boricuas must themselves secure all three points on Tuesday as they search for a first win in six outings, having drawn three and lost two of their previous five.
Adding to the challenge is the fact that Puerto Rico face a side they have failed to beat in both of their previous meetings.
Indeed, Saint Vincent have historically had the upper hand in this fixture, winning both meetings during the 1998 World Cup qualifiers — first edging a 2-1 result away before delivering a resounding 7-0 victory on home soil.
Speaking of dominant victories, Ezra Hendrickson’s men struck six without reply past Anguilla last time out, although that result proved insufficient in reviving their faint hopes of progression.
Back-to-back losses in their opening two group games mean Saint Vincent sit on three points, four adrift of second place, with any result here merely serving as a matter of pride.
Nonetheless, the Vincy Heat can take encouragement from their noticeable improvement on the last campaign, where they failed to pick up a single point in the group stage before the final round.
There is reason for optimism as well given their recent form, with Hendrickson’s side winning three of their last four matches across friendlies and qualifiers, drawing the other.
It has also been a fruitful run away from home, with Saint Vincent recording victories in three of their last four trips, the lone defeat being a 3-0 reverse against Jamaica in the Gold Cup preliminaries back in March.
Puerto Rico World Cup Qualifying - North Central America form:
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- W
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Puerto Rico form (all competitions):
- W
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- D
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- D
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Saint Vincent & the Grenadines World Cup Qualifying - North Central America form:
- L
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- W
Saint Vincent & the Grenadines form (all competitions):
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
Team News
The availability of Noeh Hernandez remains uncertain after the 20-year-old was forced off in the first half against Suriname.
Gerard Diaz came on as his replacement and could be handed a starting role here, with the Miami FC midfielder likely to feature from the off.
Trout opted for a 4-2-3-1 system in that fixture, and he may retain the same setup for this must-win clash.
Saint Vincent captain Oalex Anderson was in fine form last time out, scoring a brace to take his tally to 21, placing him fifth on the all-time scorers' list, just two shy of Myron Samuel in fourth.
Cornelius Stewart, the most capped player in the country's history, also got on the scoresheet to mark his 76th appearance in style.
Kirtney Franklin is expected to earn a start after impressing off the bench last time out, having scored once and provided two assists following his half time introduction.
Puerto Rico possible starting lineup:
Cutler; Paris, Calderon, Cardona, Rios; Ydrach, Diaz; R. Riverra, Sulia, W. Rivera; Antonetti
Saint Vincent & the Grenadines possible starting lineup:
Davis; Lynch, Johnson, Charles, Burgin; Thompson, Spring; Pierre, Joseph, Anderson; Stewart
We say: Puerto Rico 3-1 Saint Vincent & the Grenadines
Puerto Rico have struggled in recent times, particularly in this fixture, but they have won each of their last four matches on home soil, scoring 22 goals and conceding only three, so given what is at stake, we expect them to rise to the occasion and secure their first ever victory against Saint Vincent.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Puerto Rico win with a probability of 60.22%. A draw has a probability of 20.2% and a win for Saint Vincent & the Grenadines has a probability of 19.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Puerto Rico win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (8.42%) and 1-0 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.04%), while for a Saint Vincent & the Grenadines win it is 1-2 (5.25%).