[monks data]
Brazil national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage | 2nd Leg
Jun 11, 2025 at 1.45am UK
Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo)
Paraguay national football team

Brazil
1 - 0
Paraguay

Junior (44')
Junior (28'), Guimaraes (45+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Alonso (6')

Preview: Brazil vs Paraguay - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Brazil and Paraguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Brazil could rise as high as second in the World Cup 2026 qualifying campaign when they welcome Paraguay to Arena Corinthians for Tuesday night's matchday 16 contest.


Carlo Ancelotti could not secure victory in his Selecao bow against Ecuador in CONMEBOL qualifying, leaving the South American giants fourth after the 15th round, while their opponents enter the forthcoming round two points above the five-time world champions.



Match preview

Carlo Ancelotti is unveiled as Brazil's new manager on May 26, 2025

A great deal was made about Ancelotti’s first match as Brazil boss, only for the Italian to fail to inspire his team to victory in last week's goalless encounter in Ecuador.

The result means that the five-time world champions could not respond to March's 4-1 humiliation at the hands of fierce rivals Argentina and have now gone consecutive qualifying games without winning for the third time in the ongoing series, following a four-match sequence from October to November 2023 (three losses) and two 1-1 draws against Venezuela and Uruguay in November 2024.

While the loss was not fatal for the Selecao, bidding for involvement in their 23rd global finals, one victory in their past five matches during qualifying is worrisome long-term for Canarinho.

Nevertheless, six wins from 15 matches entering Ancelotti's first home game in charge of the South American giants leave much to be desired for the fourth-placed side aiming to notch their fifth victory in qualifying.

With four of their six wins coming in front of their supporters, the Selecao, who have avoided losing in their last four fixtures on home soil (three wins), strive to extend that undefeated streak at the expense of Paraguay.

 Antonio Sanabrian of Paraguay pictured on March 20 2025

The last round of results saw Gustavo Julio Alfaro’s men leapfrog the South American giants as they secured a 2-0 win over Uruguay.

By clinching that triumph, Los Guaranies extended their unbeaten run to nine, which began in September 2024.

Having claimed five wins during their commendable run, Paraguay have edged ever closer to returning to the finals, where they last featured in the 2010 event in South Africa.

With three matches remaining in the series, Paraguay enter Tuesday night's fixture on 24 points, two clear of Brazil and six ahead of seventh-placed Venezuela, occupying the Inter-confederation playoffs.

Considering the six-point advantage, the in-form Los Guaranies could seal qualification to the 2026 World Cup with a positive result and Venezuela falling away at Uruguay.

Brazil World Cup Qualifying - South America form:

Brazil form (all competitions):

Paraguay World Cup Qualifying - South America form:

Paraguay form (all competitions):



Team News

Vinicius Junior of Brazil during his national side's match against Argentina, on March 26, 2025

Having not played for Brazil since 2023, Casemiro returned against Ecuador and produced a vintage performance, so he should retain his place in the team.

Although Ancelotti's team suffered no apparent injuries, the Selecao boss could be tempted to start Antony and Matheus Cunha, with Estevao Willian and Richarlison making way.

Vinicius Junior has scored just once in World Cup qualifying, coming in the last-gasp 2-1 win over Colombia in March, and the Real Madrid man, whose national team performances are often criticised, aims to be decisive for the hosts.

Alfaro’s men seemed to emerge unscathed after their matchday 15 victory over Uruguay, providing the visitors with a rather healthy squad for Tuesday.

While four-goal forward Antonio Sanabria did not score in the victory over Uruguay, Julio Enciso notched his third goal with an 81st-minute penalty, and the wide attacker seeks his fourth strike in the qualifying series.

Brazil possible starting lineup:

Alisson; Vanderson, Marquinhos, Ribeiro, Sandro; Guimaraes, Casemiro, Gerson; Antony, Cunha, Vinicius

Paraguay possible starting lineup:

Fernandez; Caceres, G. Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; D. Gomez, Cubas, Galarza, Enciso; Almiron, Sanabria



SM words green background

We say: Brazil 1-1 Paraguay

Although Ancelotti's arrival continues to generate satisfaction in Brazil, the Selecao's indifferent form seemingly persists.

While the five-time world champions are undefeated in their last four at home, Paraguay have played out four consecutive away draws, and Los Guaranies could nick another point on their travels in CONMEBOL qualifying.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.





 


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Written by
Anthony Brown

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Brazil win with a probability of 67.93%. A draw has a probability of 20.3% and a win for Paraguay has a probability of 11.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win is 1-0 with a probability of 14.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (13.85%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.46%), while for a Paraguay win it is 0-1 (4.83%).


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