World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Mar 21, 2025 at 12.45am UK

Estadio Juscelino Kubitschek

Brazil
2 - 1
Colombia

Raphinha (6' pen., 6' pen.), Junior (90+9', 90+9')
Guimaraes (16'), Guimaraes (16'), Magalhaes (45+1'), Magalhaes (45+1'), Joelinton (86'), Joelinton (86')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Diaz (41', 41')
Rios (48'), Rios (48')

Reaction

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The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying clash between Brazil and Colombia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole looks at how Brazil could line up for their World Cup qualifier at home to Colombia on Thursday night.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brazil

All competitions

Last Game: Brazil 1-1 Uruguay
Wednesday, November 20 at 12.45am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	12	14	25
2	Ecuador	12	7	22
3	Uruguay	12	8	20
4	Colombia	12	5	19
5	Brazil	12	6	18
6	Paraguay	12	1	17
7	Bolivia	12	-14	13
8	Venezuela	12	-4	12
9	Chile	12	-11	9
10	Peru	12	-12	7

Colombia

All competitions

Last Game: Colombia 0-1 Ecuador
Tuesday, November 19 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	12	14	25
2	Ecuador	12	7	22
3	Uruguay	12	8	20
4	Colombia	12	5	19
5	Brazil	12	6	18
6	Paraguay	12	1	17
7	Bolivia	12	-14	13
8	Venezuela	12	-4	12
9	Chile	12	-11	9
10	Peru	12	-12	7

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 55.97%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Colombia had a probability of 19.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Colombia win it was 0-1 (7.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Brazil in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Brazil.

Result
Brazil	Draw	Colombia
55.97% ( 0.9)	24.56% ( -0.24)	19.46% ( -0.67)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
C	Liverpool	38	25	9	4	86	41	45	84
2	Arsenal	38	20	14	4	69	34	35	74
3	Manchester City Man City	38	21	8	9	72	44	28	71
4	Chelsea	38	20	9	9	64	43	21	69
5	Newcastle United Newcastle	38	20	6	12	68	47	21	66
6	Aston Villa	38	19	9	10	58	51	7	66
7	Nottingham Forest Nott'm Forest	38	19	8	11	58	46	12	65
8	Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton	38	16	13	9	66	59	7	61
9	Bournemouth	38	15	11	12	58	46	12	56
10	Brentford	38	16	8	14	66	57	9	56
11	Fulham	38	15	9	14	54	54	0	54
12	Crystal Palace	38	13	14	11	51	51	0	53
13	Everton	38	11	15	12	42	44	-2	48
14	West Ham United West Ham	38	11	10	17	46	62	-16	43
15	Manchester United Man Utd	38	11	9	18	44	54	-10	42
16	Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolves	38	12	6	20	54	69	-15	42
17	Tottenham Hotspur Spurs	38	11	5	22	64	65	-1	38
R	Leicester City Leicester	38	6	7	25	33	80	-47	25
R	Ipswich Town Ipswich	38	4	10	24	36	82	-46	22
R	Southampton	38	2	6	30	26	86	-60	12
					> Premier League Full Table

Brazil	Draw	Colombia
1-0 @ 13.54% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 11.1% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 6.07% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 5.18% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.85% Total : 55.96%	1-1 @ 11.56% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 8.26% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.05% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.69% Total : 24.56%	0-1 @ 7.05% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 4.94% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.9% Total : 19.46%