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World Cup
Chile national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 11, 2024 at 1am UK
Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos
Brazil national football team

Chile
1 - 2
Brazil

Vargas (2')
Galdames (40'), Loyola (72')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Jesus (45+1'), Henrique (89')
Paqueta (3'), Danilo (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Chile and Brazil, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Brazil could line up for Thursday's World Cup qualifier away in Chile.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chile

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Chile 1-2 Bolivia
Tuesday, September 10 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Brazil

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Paraguay 1-0 Brazil
Wednesday, September 11 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Chile 0-2 Brazil

 Brazil are in an awful run of form, but there are not many better fixtures they could have been given to return to winning ways. Chile are in disarray, and after falling to an embarrassing home defeat to Bolivia, there is little to suggest manager Gareca can do enough with his squad in such a short space of time to compete with the strongest in South America. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for Chile had a probability of 34.96% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Chile win was 1-0 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brazil would win this match.

Result
ChileDrawBrazil
34.96% (-1.393 -1.39) 26.68% (0.166 0.17) 38.36% (1.223 1.22)
Both teams to score 51.87% (-0.653 -0.65)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.87% (-0.78100000000001 -0.78)53.12% (0.77800000000001 0.78)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.3% (-0.667 -0.67)74.7% (0.663 0.66)
Chile Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.02% (-1.224 -1.22)28.98% (1.22 1.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.13% (-1.54 -1.54)64.87% (1.537 1.54)
Brazil Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.03% (0.33200000000001 0.33)26.97% (-0.335 -0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.69% (0.434 0.43)62.3% (-0.439 -0.44)
Score Analysis
    Chile 34.96%
    Brazil 38.36%
    Draw 26.67%
ChileDrawBrazil
1-0 @ 9.68% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 7.86% (-0.224 -0.22)
2-0 @ 5.99% (-0.23 -0.23)
3-1 @ 3.24% (-0.208 -0.21)
3-0 @ 2.48% (-0.184 -0.18)
3-2 @ 2.13% (-0.115 -0.12)
4-1 @ 1% (-0.102 -0.1)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 34.96%
1-1 @ 12.68% (0.08 0.08)
0-0 @ 7.81% (0.236 0.24)
2-2 @ 5.15% (-0.097 -0.1)
3-3 @ 0.93% (-0.041 -0.04)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.67%
0-1 @ 10.24% (0.402 0.4)
1-2 @ 8.31% (0.127 0.13)
0-2 @ 6.71% (0.325 0.33)
1-3 @ 3.63% (0.089 0.09)
0-3 @ 2.93% (0.168 0.17)
2-3 @ 2.25% (-0.021 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.19% (0.04 0.04)
0-4 @ 0.96% (0.064 0.06)
Other @ 2.13%
Total : 38.36%

How you voted: Chile vs Brazil

Chile
14.7%
Draw
17.5%
Brazil
67.8%
143
Head to Head
Mar 24, 2022 11.30pm
Group Stage
Brazil
4-0
Chile
Neymar (44' pen.), Junior (45+1'), Coutinho (72' pen.), Richarlison (90+1')
Paqueta (22'), Casemiro (60'), Neymar (62'), Junior (72')

Diaz (62'), Bravo (69'), Medel (72')
> Preview
Sep 3, 2021 2am
Group Stage
Chile
0-1
Brazil

Vegas (87')
Ribeiro (64')
> Preview
Jul 3, 2021 1am
Quarter-Finals
Brazil
1-0
Chile
> Preview
Oct 11, 2017 12.30am
Group Stage
Brazil
3-0
Chile
Paulinho (55'), Jesus (57', 93')
> Match Report
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1-0
Chile
> Match Report
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