Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

A closely-fought contest between two teams with contrasting levels of experience on the Copa America stage could be on the cards this weekend. Although Chile - who must win to keep their knockout hopes alive - will be regarded by some as slight favourites, we can see an upbeat Canada side claiming at least a share of the spoils this time around. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chile win with a probability of 40.57%. A win for Canada had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chile win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.73%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Canada win was 1-0 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Canada	Draw	Chile
34.11% ( 0.36)	25.33% ( 0.05)	40.57% ( -0.4)

Both teams to score 56.22% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.52% (

-0.14)

47.48% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.31% (

-0.13)

69.69% (

0.13)

Canada Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.23% (

0.15)

26.77% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.95% (

0.19)

62.05% (

-0.19)

Chile Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.77% (

-0.26)

23.23% (

0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.86% (

-0.39)

57.14% (

0.39)

Score Analysis

Canada 34.11%

Chile 40.57%

Draw 25.32%

Canada	Draw	Chile
1-0 @ 8.2% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 5.4% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 3.46% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.37% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.13% Total : 34.11%	1-1 @ 11.96% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.75% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.32%	0-1 @ 9.08% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.73% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 6.63% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 4.25% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.55% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.11% Total : 40.57%