Copa America | Group Stage

Jun 21, 2024 at 1am UK

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Argentina
2 - 0
Canada

Alvarez (49'), Martinez (88')
De Paul (61'), Lo Celso (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Kone (81'), Cornelius (90+4')

Lionel Messi breaks Copa America record in Argentina's win over Canada

Argentina legend Lionel Messi breaks a Copa America record in Thursday's 2-0 win over Canada at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atalanta.

Jun 21, 16:14

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa America clash between Argentina and Canada, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Argentina

All competitions

Last Game: Argentina 4-1 Guatemala
Saturday, June 15 at 1am in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Canada

All competitions

Last Game: France 0-0 Canada
Sunday, June 9 at 8.15pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	0	0	0
2	Chile	0	0	0
3	Peru	0	0	0
4	Canada	0	0	0

With Canada boasting talented players like Davies and David, they have enough quality in their squad to cause the defending champions a few problems, but we believe Argentina's array of world-class talent will ultimately shine through to claim a routine victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 62.02%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Canada had a probability of 16.98%.

The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.57%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a Canada win it was 0-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Argentina in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Argentina.

Result
Argentina	Draw	Canada
62.02% ( -0.73)	20.99% ( 0.25)	16.98% ( 0.47)

Both teams to score 52.69% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.33% (

-0.29)

43.67% (

0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.94% (

-0.29)

66.06% (

0.29)

Argentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.47% (

-0.31)

13.53% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.41% (

-0.62)

40.58% (

0.62)

Canada Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.93% (

0.4)

39.07% (

-0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.21% (

0.37)

75.78% (

-0.37)

Score Analysis

Argentina 62.02%

Canada 16.98%

Draw 20.99%

Argentina	Draw	Canada
1-0 @ 10.57% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 10.57% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.05% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 6.63% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 3.32% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 3.12% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.41% ( -0.06) 5-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.01% Total : 62.02%	1-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 20.99%	0-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.09% Total : 16.98%