CONCACAF Nations League | Semi-Finals

Mar 21, 2025 at 2.30am UK

Masafi Stadium

Canada
0 - 2
Mexico

Bombito (18'), Bombito (18'), Davies (22'), Davies (22'), Johnston (33'), Johnston (33')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Jimenez (1', 1', 75', 75')
Vega (27'), Vega (27'), Vasquez (43'), Vasquez (43'), Reyes (71'), Reyes (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Canada and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Canada

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Canada 3-0 Suriname
Wednesday, November 20 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	5	9
2	Canada	3	-1	4
3	Chile	3	-1	2
4	Peru	3	-3	1

Mexico

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Mexico 4-0 Honduras
Wednesday, November 20 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Venezuela	3	5	9
2	Ecuador	3	1	4
3	Mexico	3	0	4
4	Jamaica	3	-6	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 46.35%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 28.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.

Result
Canada	Draw	Mexico
46.35% ( 0.44)	24.91% ( 0.15)	28.73% ( -0.59)

Both teams to score 55.19% (

-0.86)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.25% (

-0.96)

47.74% (

0.96)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.06% (

-0.89)

69.93% (

0.89)

Canada Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.35% (

-0.2)

20.64% (

0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.78% (

-0.31)

53.21% (

0.31)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.54% (

-0.91)

30.45% (

0.91)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.34% (

-1.09)

66.66% (

1.1)

Score Analysis

Canada 46.35%

Mexico 28.73%

Draw 24.91%

Canada	Draw	Mexico
1-0 @ 9.92% ( 0.33) 2-1 @ 9.3% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.83% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.12% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.69% Total : 46.35%	1-1 @ 11.79% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.29% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.91%	0-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 7.01% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.07% Total : 28.73%