FA Cup

FA Cup | Second Round

Nov 30, 2024 at 3pm UK

The People's Pension Stadium

Crawley
3 - 4
Lincoln

Roles (10'), Showunmi (13'), Kelley (82')
John-Jules (22')

FT(HT: 2-2)

O'Connor (19'), Makama (39'), Ring (47'), Moylan (48')
Wickens (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Crawley Town and Lincoln City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crawley Town

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Crawley 1-0 Rotherham
Saturday, November 23 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Lincoln City

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Wrexham 1-0 Lincoln
Tuesday, November 26 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 50.37%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 26.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.3%) and 0-2 (8.1%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 2-1 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lincoln City would win this match.

Result
Crawley Town	Draw	Lincoln City
26.02% ( 0.14)	23.6% ( -0.02)	50.37% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 57.35% (

0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.12% (

0.2)

43.88% (

-0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.73% (

0.19)

66.27% (

-0.19)

Crawley Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.52% (

0.22)

30.48% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.31% (

0.25)

66.69% (

-0.25)

Lincoln City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.49% (

0.03)

17.5% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.99% (

0.05)

48.01% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Crawley Town 26.02%

Lincoln City 50.37%

Draw 23.59%

Crawley Town	Draw	Lincoln City
2-1 @ 6.56% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.34% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 3.77% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 1.49% ( 0.01) Other @ 3% Total : 26.02%	1-1 @ 11.04% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.59%	1-2 @ 9.63% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.3% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 8.1% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 5.59% 0-3 @ 4.71% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 2.44% ( 0) 0-4 @ 2.05% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.45% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.79% Total : 50.37%