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FA Cup

FA Cup | First Round
Nov 4, 2024 at 7.15pm UK
The Meadow
Lincoln City

Chesham
0 - 4
Lincoln

FT(HT: 0-1)
Moylan (44'), Makama (49'), McGrandles (65'), Adebiyi (87' og.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's FA Cup clash between Chesham United and Lincoln City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chesham United

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Enfield Town 2-3 Chesham
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in National League South

Lincoln City

All competitions
Last Game: Lincoln 2-1 Northampton
Tuesday, October 29 at 7.45pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 57.93%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Chesham United had a probability of 18.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.87%) and 1-2 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Chesham United win it was 1-0 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lincoln City would win this match.

Result
Chesham UnitedDrawLincoln City
18.84% (0.221 0.22)23.23% (0.245 0.25)57.93% (-0.468 -0.47)
Both teams to score 49.1% (-0.369 -0.37)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.75% (-0.689 -0.69)50.25% (0.687 0.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.8% (-0.614 -0.61)72.2% (0.613 0.61)
Chesham United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.21% (-0.153 -0.15)40.79% (0.153 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.63% (-0.136 -0.14)77.37% (0.13500000000001 0.14)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.92% (-0.40900000000001 -0.41)17.08% (0.408 0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.73% (-0.727 -0.73)47.27% (0.72600000000001 0.73)
Score Analysis
    Chesham United 18.84%
    Lincoln City 57.92%
    Draw 23.23%
Chesham UnitedDrawLincoln City
1-0 @ 6.25% (0.147 0.15)
2-1 @ 4.95% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 2.8% (0.054 0.05)
3-1 @ 1.48% (0.0029999999999999 0)
3-2 @ 1.31% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.05%
Total : 18.84%
1-1 @ 11.04% (0.11 0.11)
0-0 @ 6.97% (0.192 0.19)
2-2 @ 4.38% (-0.033 -0.03)
Other @ 0.85%
Total : 23.23%
0-1 @ 12.31% (0.18 0.18)
0-2 @ 10.87%
1-2 @ 9.76% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
0-3 @ 6.41% (-0.082 -0.08)
1-3 @ 5.75% (-0.099 -0.1)
0-4 @ 2.83% (-0.076 -0.08)
2-3 @ 2.58% (-0.055 -0.06)
1-4 @ 2.54% (-0.079 -0.08)
2-4 @ 1.14% (-0.04 -0.04)
0-5 @ 1% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 57.92%

How you voted: Chesham vs Lincoln

Chesham United
22.1%
Draw
10.4%
Lincoln City
67.5%
77