

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 84.62%. A draw had a probability of 10.6% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 4.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.24%) and 4-0 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.02%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (1.69%). The actual scoreline of 8-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 84.62% ( | 10.58% ( | 4.81% ( |
| Both teams to score 43.04% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.33% ( | 30.67% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.01% ( | 52% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.89% ( | 5.11% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 79.69% ( | 20.32% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.36% ( | 54.64% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 12.34% ( | 87.67% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 2-0 @ 12.35% ( 3-0 @ 12.24% ( 4-0 @ 9.1% ( 1-0 @ 8.31% ( 2-1 @ 7.46% ( 3-1 @ 7.4% ( 4-1 @ 5.5% ( 5-0 @ 5.41% ( 5-1 @ 3.27% ( 6-0 @ 2.68% ( 3-2 @ 2.24% ( 4-2 @ 1.66% ( 6-1 @ 1.62% ( 7-0 @ 1.14% ( 5-2 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 3.25% Total : 84.62% | 1-1 @ 5.02% ( 0-0 @ 2.79% ( 2-2 @ 2.26% ( Other @ 0.51% Total : 10.58% | 0-1 @ 1.69% ( 1-2 @ 1.52% ( Other @ 1.61% Total : 4.81% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 12 | 32 | 51 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 19 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 49 |
| 3 | Porto | 20 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 45 |
| 4 | Braga | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 27 | 17 | 40 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 32 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 25 |
| 8 | SC FarenseFarense | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 25 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 22 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 22 |
| 11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 21 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 21 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 41 | -18 | 21 |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 20 |
| 15 | Rio AveRio Ave | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 18 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | ChavesChaves | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 14 |
| 18 | Vizela | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 13 |
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