

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 60%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 16.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.2%) and 1-2 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (6.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 16.53% ( | 23.47% ( | 60% ( |
| Both teams to score 44.3% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.56% ( | 54.44% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.19% ( | 75.8% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.92% ( | 46.07% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.22% ( | 81.78% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.14% ( | 17.85% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.38% ( | 48.62% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 6.38% ( 2-1 @ 4.26% ( 2-0 @ 2.47% ( 3-1 @ 1.1% ( 3-2 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 1.38% Total : 16.53% | 1-1 @ 10.98% ( 0-0 @ 8.23% ( 2-2 @ 3.67% ( Other @ 0.59% Total : 23.46% | 0-1 @ 14.17% ( 0-2 @ 12.2% ( 1-2 @ 9.46% ( 0-3 @ 7.01% ( 1-3 @ 5.43% ( 0-4 @ 3.02% ( 1-4 @ 2.34% ( 2-3 @ 2.11% ( 0-5 @ 1.04% ( 2-4 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 2.3% Total : 59.99% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 33 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 79 | 20 | 59 | 84 |
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 31 | 38 | 71 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 53 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 41 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 32 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
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