Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 61.79%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 17.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.01%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (5.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Casa Pia |
61.79% (![]() | 21.13% (![]() | 17.08% (![]() |
Both teams to score 52.41% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.86% (![]() | 44.14% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.48% (![]() | 66.52% (![]() |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.25% (![]() | 13.75% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.97% (![]() | 41.02% (![]() |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.76% (![]() | 39.24% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.05% (![]() | 75.94% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Casa Pia |
1-0 @ 10.7% 2-0 @ 10.62% 2-1 @ 9.94% 3-0 @ 7.03% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 6.57% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 3.49% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 3.26% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 3.07% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.53% 5-0 @ 1.38% ( ![]() 5-1 @ 1.29% ( ![]() Other @ 2.91% Total : 61.79% | 1-1 @ 10.01% 0-0 @ 5.39% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 4.65% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 0.96% ( ![]() Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.13% | 0-1 @ 5.05% (![]() 1-2 @ 4.68% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 2.36% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 1.46% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.45% ( ![]() Other @ 2.08% Total : 17.08% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 27 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 68 | 16 | 52 | 71 |
2 | Porto | 27 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 58 | 18 | 40 | 64 |
3 | Braga | 27 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 60 | 24 | 36 | 62 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 27 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 56 | 26 | 30 | 57 |
5 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 44 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 41 |
7 | Vizela | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 38 |
8 | Casa Pia | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 38 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 36 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 34 |
11 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
12 | ChavesChaves | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 30 |
14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 27 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 27 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 27 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 25 |
16 | Maritimo | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 19 |
17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 27 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 17 |
18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 15 |
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