Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 44.61%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 34.13% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.53%) and 3-2 (4.83%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-2 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.