Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.37%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 12.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.9%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (4.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sporting Lisbon.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Gil Vicente | 
| 68.37% (  2.08) | 18.74% (  -0.62) | 12.89% (  -1.45) | 
| Both teams to score 49.96% (  -1.95) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 57.94% (  -0.5) | 42.05% (  0.5) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 35.54% (  -0.5) | 64.46% (  0.51) | 
| Sporting Lisbon Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 88.74% (  0.42) | 11.26% (  -0.41) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 64.15% (  0.89) | 35.85% (  -0.89) | 
| Gil Vicente Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 56.3% (  -2.47) | 43.7% (  2.48) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.12% (  -2.12) | 79.87% (  2.12) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Gil Vicente | 
| 2-0 @ 11.73% (  0.64) 1-0 @ 10.74% (  0.41) 2-1 @ 9.71% (  -0.12) 3-0 @ 8.54% (  0.6) 3-1 @ 7.07% (  0.03) 4-0 @ 4.66% (  0.4) 4-1 @ 3.86% (  0.08) 3-2 @ 2.93% (  -0.19) 5-0 @ 2.04% (  0.2) 5-1 @ 1.69% (  0.06) 4-2 @ 1.6% (  -0.08) Other @ 3.79% Total : 68.36% | 1-1 @ 8.9% (  -0.26) 0-0 @ 4.92% (  0.11) 2-2 @ 4.02% (  -0.34) Other @ 0.91% Total : 18.74% | 0-1 @ 4.07% (  -0.19) 1-2 @ 3.68% (  -0.38) 0-2 @ 1.69% (  -0.2) 2-3 @ 1.11% (  -0.18) 1-3 @ 1.02% (  -0.18) Other @ 1.32% Total : 12.89% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 26 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 67 | 14 | 53 | 71 | 
| 2 | Porto | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 56 | 17 | 39 | 61 | 
| 3 | Braga | 26 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 56 | 23 | 33 | 59 | 
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 54 | 
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 41 | 
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 41 | 
| 7 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 | 
| 8 | Vizela | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 35 | 
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 33 | 
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 33 | 
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 32 | 
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 30 | 
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 30 | 
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 26 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 26 | 
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 | 
| 16 | Maritimo | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 19 | 
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 17 | 
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 41 | -24 | 15 | 
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