

| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Portimonense | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Estoril Praia | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 6 | Chaves | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Sporting Lisbon | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 4 | -2 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 62.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 16.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.01%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.93%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (4.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 16.21% ( | 20.92% ( | 62.87% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.23% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.24% ( | 44.76% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.88% ( | 67.12% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.31% ( | 40.69% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.72% ( | 77.28% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.38% ( | 13.62% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.23% ( | 40.77% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 4.98% ( 2-1 @ 4.47% ( 2-0 @ 2.24% ( 3-1 @ 1.34% ( 3-2 @ 1.34% ( Other @ 1.84% Total : 16.21% | 1-1 @ 9.93% ( 0-0 @ 5.54% ( 2-2 @ 4.45% ( Other @ 0.99% Total : 20.92% | 0-1 @ 11.04% ( 0-2 @ 11.01% ( 1-2 @ 9.9% ( 0-3 @ 7.32% ( 1-3 @ 6.58% ( 0-4 @ 3.65% ( 1-4 @ 3.28% ( 2-3 @ 2.96% ( 2-4 @ 1.48% ( 0-5 @ 1.46% ( 1-5 @ 1.31% ( Other @ 2.88% Total : 62.86% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 64 | 21 | 43 | 56 |
| 2 | Benfica | 23 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 18 | 35 | 53 |
| 3 | Porto | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 49 | 19 | 30 | 50 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 22 | 18 | 47 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 39 |
| 6 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 36 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 35 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 34 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 31 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 29 |
| 11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 27 |
| 12 | Nacional | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 25 |
| 14 | AVS | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 23 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 22 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 22 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 24 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 34 | -19 | 16 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 40 | -25 | 15 |
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