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Champions League header

Champions League
Real Madrid logo
Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Mar 4, 2025 at 8pm UK
Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Atletico Madrid logo

Real Madrid
2 - 1
Atletico

Rodrygo (4'), Diaz (55')
Diaz (55')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Alvarez (32')

The Match

Match Report

Real Madrid battle to a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Atletico Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu, giving Los Blancos the upper hand heading into next week's second leg.

Team News

Sports Mole rounds up all of the latest injury and suspension news ahead of Tuesday's Champions League clash between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Real Madrid could line up for Tuesday's Champions League last-16 first leg with Atletico Madrid.

Injuries & Suspensions

Sports Mole looks at Real Madrid's injury and suspension news ahead of their Champions League clash with Atletico Madrid.

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Betis 2-1 Real Madrid
Saturday, March 1 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Atletico 1-0 Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, March 1 at 8pm in La Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 53.65%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 23.93% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Real Madrid in this match.

Result
Real MadridDrawAtletico Madrid
53.65% (-1.737 -1.74) 22.42% (0.231 0.23) 23.93% (1.512 1.51)
Both teams to score 59.16% (1.155 1.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.53% (0.63800000000001 0.64)40.47% (-0.632 -0.63)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.15% (0.652 0.65)62.85% (-0.647 -0.65)
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.9% (-0.348 -0.35)15.1% (0.354 0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.35% (-0.666 -0.67)43.65% (0.672 0.67)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.68% (1.643 1.64)30.32% (-1.637 -1.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.5% (1.916 1.92)66.5% (-1.909 -1.91)
Score Analysis
    Real Madrid 53.65%
    Atletico Madrid 23.93%
    Draw 22.42%
Real MadridDrawAtletico Madrid
2-1 @ 9.76% (-0.086 -0.09)
1-0 @ 8.66% (-0.366 -0.37)
2-0 @ 8.18% (-0.452 -0.45)
3-1 @ 6.15% (-0.132 -0.13)
3-0 @ 5.15% (-0.354 -0.35)
3-2 @ 3.67% (0.086 0.09)
4-1 @ 2.91% (-0.099 -0.1)
4-0 @ 2.44% (-0.199 -0.2)
4-2 @ 1.73% (0.019 0.02)
5-1 @ 1.1% (-0.052 -0.05)
5-0 @ 0.92% (-0.088 -0.09)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 53.65%
1-1 @ 10.33% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
2-2 @ 5.83% (0.207 0.21)
0-0 @ 4.58% (-0.134 -0.13)
3-3 @ 1.46% (0.097 0.1)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 22.42%
1-2 @ 6.16% (0.294 0.29)
0-1 @ 5.47% (0.088 0.09)
0-2 @ 3.26% (0.194 0.19)
1-3 @ 2.45% (0.22 0.22)
2-3 @ 2.32% (0.181 0.18)
0-3 @ 1.3% (0.131 0.13)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 23.93%

How you voted: Real Madrid vs Atletico

Real Madrid
62.7%
Draw
22.5%
Atletico Madrid
14.8%
413
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