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La Liga | Gameweek 26
Mar 1, 2025 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Athletic Bilbao logo

Atletico
1 - 0
Athletic Bilbao

Alvarez (66')
Sorloth (57'), Barrios (68')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Ruiz de Galarreta (32'), Gorosabel (62'), Alvarez (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Barcelona 4-4 Atletico
Tuesday, February 25 at 8.30pm in Copa del Rey

We said: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Athletic Bilbao

This is such a difficult match to call, with Athletic on a long unbeaten run, but Atletico away is one of the toughest matches in the division, and we can see Simeone's side edging a close game to put an incredibly important three points on the board. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 49.23%. A draw has a probability of 26.4% and a win for Athletic Bilbao has a probability of 24.33%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (9.64%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.43%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it is 0-1 (8.49%).

Result
Atletico MadridDrawAthletic Bilbao
49.23% (0.020000000000003 0.02) 26.44% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01) 24.33% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 46.99% (0.012 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.28% (0.021000000000001 0.02)56.72% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.33% (0.016000000000002 0.02)77.67% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.89% (0.018000000000001 0.02)23.11% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.04% (0.026000000000003 0.03)56.96% (-0.023999999999994 -0.02)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.12% (0.0019999999999953 0)38.88% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.39% (0.0010000000000012 0)75.61%
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 49.22%
    Athletic Bilbao 24.33%
    Draw 26.44%
Atletico MadridDrawAthletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 13.16%
2-0 @ 9.64% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-1 @ 9.11% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 4.71% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-1 @ 4.45% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.1% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-0 @ 1.72% (0.002 0)
4-1 @ 1.63% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 49.22%
1-1 @ 12.43%
0-0 @ 8.99% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.3% (0.00099999999999945 0)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 26.44%
0-1 @ 8.49% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 5.87% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 4.01% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
1-3 @ 1.85% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.36% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.26% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 1.5%
Total : 24.33%

How you voted: Atletico vs Athletic Bilbao

Atletico Madrid
75.4%
Draw
21.3%
Athletic Bilbao
3.3%
122
Head to Head
Aug 31, 2024 6pm
Gameweek 4
Athletic Bilbao
0-1
Atletico

Williams (15'), Alvarez (34'), Sancet (35')
Correa (90+2')
Koke (85')
Apr 27, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 33
Atletico
3-1
Athletic Bilbao
De Paul (15'), Correa (52'), Simon (80' og.)
De Paul (5'), Hermoso (90+3'), Griezmann (90+4')
Williams (45')
Sancet (59'), Paredes (71')
Feb 29, 2024 8.30pm
Feb 7, 2024 8.30pm
Semi-Finals 1st Leg
Atletico
0-1
Athletic Bilbao

Mandava (23'), Simeone (24'), Simeone (65'), De Paul (83')
Berenguer (25' pen.)
Prados (37'), Vivian (45+2'), Gomez (71'), Ruiz de Galarreta (90+7')
Dec 16, 2023 3.15pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona33244589325776
2Real Madrid33226566313572
3Atletico MadridAtletico33199556272966
4Athletic Bilbao331612550262460
5Villarreal331510856451155
6Real BetisBetis3315995041954
7Celta Vigo33137135049146
8Osasuna33101494046-644
9Mallorca33128133138-744
10Real Sociedad33126153237-542
11Rayo Vallecano331011123542-741
12Getafe33109143130139
13Espanyol33109143542-739
14Valencia33912123749-1239
15Sevilla33910143544-937
16GironaGirona3398164052-1235
17AlavesAlaves33810153546-1134
18Las PalmasLas Palmas3388173853-1532
19Leganes33612153049-1930
20Real ValladolidValladolid3344252481-5716


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