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La Liga | Gameweek 25
Feb 23, 2025 at 1pm UK
San Mames Barria
Real Valladolid logo

Athletic Bilbao
7 - 1
Valladolid

Jauregizar (10'), Williams (35', 66'), Sannadi Harrouch (43'), Sancet (45+2'), Guruzeta (69'), Williams (87')
Vivian (79'), Ruiz de Galarreta (84')
FT(HT: 4-0)
Sylla (47')
Martin Rielves (44'), Juric (46')
Juric (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Athletic Bilbao and Real Valladolid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Valladolid 0-4 Sevilla
Sunday, February 16 at 3.15pm in La Liga

We said: Athletic Bilbao 2-0 Real Valladolid

Athletic have been excellent on home soil this term, and we are finding it incredibly difficult to predict an upset here; Real Valladolid have suffered 11 defeats from their 12 away league games this season, but that is likely to become 12 from 13 on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 70.3%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 10.75%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.39%) and 3-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.91%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Athletic BilbaoDrawReal Valladolid
70.3% (0.30200000000001 0.3) 18.95% (-0.041999999999998 -0.04) 10.75% (-0.262 -0.26)
Both teams to score 42.48% (-0.743 -0.74)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.62% (-0.508 -0.51)48.38% (0.50700000000001 0.51)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.48% (-0.465 -0.47)70.52% (0.464 0.46)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.45% (-0.064000000000007 -0.06)12.55% (0.061999999999999 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.4% (-0.133 -0.13)38.6% (0.132 0.13)
Real Valladolid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
48.58% (-0.814 -0.81)51.42% (0.813 0.81)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.38% (-0.546 -0.55)85.62% (0.54600000000001 0.55)
Score Analysis
    Athletic Bilbao 70.28%
    Real Valladolid 10.75%
    Draw 18.95%
Athletic BilbaoDrawReal Valladolid
2-0 @ 13.89% (0.22 0.22)
1-0 @ 13.39% (0.25 0.25)
3-0 @ 9.62% (0.131 0.13)
2-1 @ 9.24% (-0.071 -0.07)
3-1 @ 6.4% (-0.064 -0.06)
4-0 @ 4.99% (0.056 0.06)
4-1 @ 3.32% (-0.041 -0.04)
3-2 @ 2.13% (-0.073 -0.07)
5-0 @ 2.07% (0.019 0.02)
5-1 @ 1.38% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.1% (-0.041 -0.04)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 70.28%
1-1 @ 8.91% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
0-0 @ 6.45% (0.134 0.13)
2-2 @ 3.07% (-0.098 -0.1)
Other @ 0.52%
Total : 18.95%
0-1 @ 4.29% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-2 @ 2.96% (-0.086 -0.09)
0-2 @ 1.43% (-0.038 -0.04)
Other @ 2.07%
Total : 10.75%

How you voted: Athletic Bilbao vs Valladolid

Athletic Bilbao
97.1%
Draw
2.9%
Real Valladolid
0.0%
34
Head to Head
Nov 10, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 13
Valladolid
1-1
Athletic Bilbao
Moro (79')
Anuar (19'), Pezzolano (45+4'), Torres (72'), Martin Rielves (78'), Comert (90')
Guruzeta (90+4')
Jauregizar (26'), Prados (43'), Vesga (66'), Marton (90')
Mar 17, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 26
Valladolid
1-3
Athletic Bilbao
Larin (74')
Martinez (30'), Guruzeta (57'), Vesga (78' pen.)
Nov 8, 2022 7pm
Gameweek 14
Athletic Bilbao
3-0
Valladolid
Guruzeta (18', 51'), Vivian (78')
Apr 28, 2021 6pm
Gameweek 33
Athletic Bilbao
2-2
Valladolid
Morcillo (14'), Garcia (76')
Sancet (61')
Orellana (70'), Weissman (85')
El Yamiq (90+1')
Nov 8, 2020 5.30pm
Gameweek 9
Valladolid
2-1
Athletic Bilbao
Orellana (19' pen.), Maranhao (48')
Hervias (38'), Alcaraz (66'), Masip (71'), Garcia Carnero (90+1')
Williams (86' pen.)
Simon (17'), Muniain (66')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona33244589325776
2Real Madrid33226566313572
3Atletico MadridAtletico33199556272966
4Athletic Bilbao331612550262460
5Villarreal331510856451155
6Real BetisBetis3315995041954
7Celta Vigo33137135049146
8Osasuna33101494046-644
9Mallorca33128133138-744
10Real Sociedad33126153237-542
11Rayo Vallecano331011123542-741
12Getafe33109143130139
13Espanyol33109143542-739
14Valencia33912123749-1239
15Sevilla33910143544-937
16GironaGirona3398164052-1235
17AlavesAlaves33810153546-1134
18Las PalmasLas Palmas3388173853-1532
19Leganes33612153049-1930
20Real ValladolidValladolid3344252481-5716


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