These two teams have not shared the points at the home of Real Valladolid since February 2013, but we are backing a stalemate on Friday night. Athletic's recent form has been disappointing, so it is difficult to back them to win, and Real Valladolid certainly have enough about them to claim a share of the spoils in this match.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 38.63%. A win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 32.69% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.88%) and 0-2 (7.4%). The likeliest Real Valladolid win was 1-0 (11.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
0.25) 
-0.4) 
