Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tamworth win with a probability of 41.94%. A win for Wealdstone had a probability of 31.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tamworth win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Wealdstone win was 0-1 (8.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tamworth would win this match.