La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 31

Apr 13, 2025 at 3.15pm UK

Estadio de Mendizorroza

Alaves
0 - 1
Real Madrid

Jordan (42'), Martin (55'), Tenaglia (77'), Mourino (90+8')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Asencio del Rosario (19'), Camavinga (34')
Camavinga (80'), Vazquez (88'), Courtois (90+7'), Junior (90+5')
Mbappe (38')

Reaction

Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappe in action on April 13, 2025

Real Madrid 'learn extent' of Kylian Mbappe ban following Alaves horror tackle

Real Madrid reportedly learn the extent of Kylian Mbappe's punishment following his red card in Sunday's 1-0 La Liga win over Alaves.

Apr 14, 18:36

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Alaves

All competitions

Last Game: Girona 0-1 Alaves
Saturday, April 5 at 1pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Real Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid
Tuesday, April 8 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 54.02%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 21.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.95%) and 1-2 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (6.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Real Madrid in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Real Madrid.

Result
Alaves	Draw	Real Madrid
21.78% ( -0.16)	24.2% ( -0.02)	54.02% ( 0.18)

Both teams to score 50.61% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.49% (

-0.11)

50.51% (

0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.57% (

-0.1)

72.43% (

0.1)

Alaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.18% (

-0.22)

37.82% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.4% (

-0.22)

74.6% (

0.22)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.39% (

0.03)

18.61% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.09% (

0.05)

49.91% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Alaves 21.78%

Real Madrid 54.01%

Draw 24.19%

Alaves	Draw	Real Madrid
1-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 5.6% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 3.33% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.81% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.52% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.6% Total : 21.78%	1-1 @ 11.5% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.7% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.95% Total : 24.19%	0-1 @ 11.83% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 9.95% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 9.67% ( 0) 0-3 @ 5.58% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 5.42% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.34% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 2.28% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0) Other @ 3.19% Total : 54.01%