La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 28

Mar 15, 2025 at 5.30pm UK

Estadio de la Ceramica

Villarreal
1 - 2
Real Madrid

Foyth (7')
Cardona (50'), Foyth (75')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Mbappe (17', 23')
Tchouameni (33')

Reaction

Real Madrid head coach Carlo Ancelotti on March 12, 2025

Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti warns La Liga as Kylian Mbappe breaks Ronaldo record

Real Madrid head coach Carlo Ancelotti warns La Liga that Saturday's game against Villarreal is "the last time" that Los Blancos will take to the field less than 72 hours between matches.

Mar 16, 08:44

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Villarreal

All competitions

Last Game: Alaves 1-0 Villarreal
Saturday, March 8 at 3.15pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Real Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Atletico 1-0 Real Madrid (2-4 pen.)
Wednesday, March 12 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 39.81%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 36.81% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.62%) and 0-2 (5.43%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Real Madrid in this match.

Result
Villarreal	Draw	Real Madrid
36.81% ( -0.5)	23.37% ( -0.08)	39.81% ( 0.58)

Both teams to score 63.82% (

0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.2% (

0.36)

37.8% (

-0.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.96% (

0.38)

60.04% (

-0.38)

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.18% (

-0.09)

20.82% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.52% (

-0.14)

53.48% (

0.14)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.6% (

0.42)

19.4% (

-0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.78% (

0.68)

51.22% (

-0.68)

Score Analysis

Villarreal 36.81%

Real Madrid 39.81%

Draw 23.37%

Villarreal	Draw	Real Madrid
2-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 6.34% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 4.97% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 4.27% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.5% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.6% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.91% Total : 36.81%	1-1 @ 10.39% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.37%	1-2 @ 8.52% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 6.62% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.43% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 4.66% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 3.66% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 2.97% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 1.91% ( 0.06) 2-4 @ 1.5% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.33% Total : 39.81%